Vice President Kamala Harris remains in the lead in two key swing states that will matter for the Nov. 5 election results, according to a new poll by the University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov Survey published Thursday.
Tally In Michigan: Harris had a five-point lead in Michigan as she received the support of 48% of the likely voters versus the 43% support Republican candidate Donald Trump received. No other candidate received more than 2% support and 3% said they were undecided.
The survey was conducted on Sept. 11-19 with a sample of 650 likely voters in Michigan, with the adjusted sample of error at plus, or minus 4.37%.
“For a swing state, this margin is good news for the vice president’s campaign,” said Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, UMass Lowell assistant professor of political science.
“In the next few days, we can expect the Harris campaign will defend her lead. The Trump campaign, on the other hand, has a negative favorability that needs to be overcome if they want to remain competitive in the state.”
The Harris as well as Trump backers are firm in their choices, with only 6% of Trump backers and 4% of Harris backers saying they could change their minds and vote for different candidates.
On a negative note, Trump’s favorability rating left a lot to be desired. Notwithstanding the close race, suggested by the head-on-head matchup, the former president had a net negativity favorability rating of -15, with 41% viewing him favorably, while 56% viewed him unfavorably. Three percent said they had no opinion about him.
Harris had a net neutral favorability rating, with 47% each saying they viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Five percent said they had no opinion about her.
Trump is scheduled to campaign in West Michigan on Friday and is scheduled to speak at a manufacturing facility in a Grand Rapids suburb and host a town hall at Macomb Community College in Warren. Meanwhile, Harris was in Michigan last week and participated in a livestream event hosted by TV host Oprah Winfrey from Farmington Hills.
Tally in Pennsylvania: Harris prevailed over Trump by a margin of 48%-46% in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, another UMass UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll showed. No other candidate received more than 1% support and 4% said they were undecided.
The poll was conducted online-based between Sept. 11-19 and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percentage points.
Four percent of Trump voters said they could switch their preferences and a steeper 7% of Harris felt similarly.
“The presidential race remains very close in Pennsylvania with the coming weeks a crucial time for both campaigns,” said Castro Cornejo. “As can be expected in a highly competitive race with few undecided voters, get-out-the-vote strategies will become increasingly important to mobilize supporters and ensure they go to the polls on Election Day.”
No other candidate on the ballot received more than 1% of support from respondents in the survey, while 4% reported remaining undecided.
Harris had a net negative favorability rating of 1%, while her rival had a far worse negative 11 percent favorability rating.
In the Senate race, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-Pa.) was ahead of David McCormick by a 47%-38% margin.
The polling averages compiled by prominent pollster Nate Silver showed Harris leading Trump by 1.5 points in Pennsylvania (48.8%-47.3%) and by 2.3 points in Michigan (49.1%-46.8%).
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