Elon Musk‘s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) could profit from the growing political backlash against AI data centers, Deutsche Bank says.
Deutsche Bank expects post-election political pressure to slow construction, mainly in 2028, keeping computing capacity scarce and rental prices higher for longer.
Voters favored limiting data-center development in 40 of 41 local ballot contests across 10 states last week, according to Ballotpedia.
Analyst Edison Yu raised his 2028 EBITDA forecast for SpaceX by $18 billion to $237.1 billion and his revenue estimate by $18.7 billion to $315.3 billion. The revisions also reflect a larger contribution from its cloud business.
Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy rating and $250 price target.
Why Fewer Data Centers Could Mean More Revenue
AI developers need enormous amounts of computing power. When new facilities are delayed, customers have fewer places to rent it, giving operators with existing capacity more pricing power.
SpaceX already rents computing capacity to Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Anthropic. Deutsche Bank expects cloud computing to account for more than half of its fourth-quarter revenue.
Musk acknowledged the stakes Monday: “If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop,” he wrote on X.
Deutsche Bank suggests SpaceX could exploit the shortage by giving customers 90 days’ notice to terminate existing computing contracts, then demanding higher prices for new deals.
The bank considers this a possibility but has not factored it into its earnings forecasts.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya made a similar argument on the All-In podcast, suggesting Anthropic might have little choice but to accept higher rates if computing power remains scarce.
Crackdown Could Hurt Musk’s Own Expansion
SpaceX itself is pursuing a $24 billion gas-fired power project and computing facility in Texas, potentially exposing its expansion to the same restrictions benefiting its existing operations.
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged to halt new approvals until lawmakers establish protections for electricity costs, water supplies and local communities.
Deutsche Bank believes SpaceX could still add roughly one gigawatt of computing capacity in Texas and highlights a six-gigawatt plan in Arizona, although construction costs per gigawatt may rise.
“It is extraordinarily difficult to bring on compute at scale,” Musk said at Friday’s Baron Investment Conference, arguing that construction workers are spread thin across too many projects.
Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket give Texas a roughly 22% chance of enacting a statewide data-center moratorium by the end of 2027 and 34% by the end of 2028, with approximately $828,000 traded.
The contracts require a law or constitutional provision, meaning permitting freezes could still slow construction without triggering a payout.
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