Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ:RKLB) reported third-quarter financial results on Monday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.
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Summary
Rocket Lab USA reported a record Q3 revenue of $268 million, a 73% increase year-over-year, and a backlog of $3.57 billion across 117 launches.
The company announced significant growth in its Space Systems division, with $688 million in new contracts year-to-date, a 319% increase from 2025.
Strategic acquisitions, including Mynaric and the pending Iridium Communications purchase, aim to enhance capabilities and transform Rocket Lab into an end-to-end space company.
Neutron rocket’s first launch timeline shifted to 2027 due to technical challenges, but significant progress is being made in production and testing.
GAAP gross margin was 33.6% for Q3, with non-GAAP gross margin at 38.4%, driven by component business profitability and favorable launch conditions.
The company raised $2.4 billion through its ATM program to fund the Iridium acquisition and reported a strong liquidity position with $4.7 billion in cash and marketable securities.
Future guidance projects Q4 revenue between $270 million and $290 million, emphasizing continued growth in both Launch and Space Systems segments.
Neutron bookings are at a premium price, reflecting the constrained launch market, with 50% of Neutron’s capacity reserved for internal use.
Management is optimistic about 2027 growth, focusing on scaling Neutron production and potential strategic opportunities with the Iridium acquisition.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Rocket Lab USA third quarter earnings call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you’ll need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded.
I’d now like to hand the conference over to Muriel Baker, Director of Corporate and Launch Communications. Please go ahead.
Muriel Baker (Director of Corporate and Launch Communications)
Hello and welcome to today’s conference call to discuss Rocket Lab USA’s third quarter 2026 financial results, business highlights, and other updates. Before we begin the call, I’d like to remind you that our remarks may contain forward-looking statements that relate to the future performance of the Company, and these statements are intended to qualify for the safe harbor protection from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Any such statements are not guarantees of future performance, and factors that could influence our results are highlighted in today’s press release and others are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Such statements are based upon information available to the Company as of the date hereof and are subject to change for future developments. Except as required by law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update these statements. Our remarks and press release today also contain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of Regulation G enacted by the SEC, and included in such release and our supplemental materials are reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP.
This call is also being webcast with a supporting presentation, and a replay and copy of the presentation will be available on our website. Our speakers today are Rocket Lab USA Founder and Chief Executive Officer Sir Peter Beck, as well as Chief Financial Officer Adam Spice. They will be discussing key business highlights including updates on our launch and space systems programs and our pending acquisition of Iridium Communications, followed by financial highlights and outlook.
We will then open the call for questions. So with that, let me turn the call over to Sir Peter.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Thanks, Muriel. It’s been an outstanding quarter with new records across the business. Revenue came in at $268 million, 73% higher than the same quarter last year and $34 million more than Q2. That’s the sixth time in a row for record revenue quarters. Our Q3 ending backlog hit a new high of $3.57 billion across 117 launches and more than 55 spacecraft. And since the quarter closed, we’ve added even more launch and space systems contracts. As we head into the final months of the year, I wanted to do a bit of a wrap-up of our achievements for 2026 to put our growth into context: only six years ago we were making less than 4% of our annual revenue we’re expected to bring in this year, from $35.2 million in 2020 to our near billion dollar 2026 full year guide. Our gross margins have also seen dramatic improvement from negative territory in 2020 to a projected 2026 GAAP gross margin in the 35% range.
On a non-GAAP basis, we project margins in the 40s, an increase of over 69 percentage points since 2020. In an industry where execution and reliability are non-negotiable, Rocket Lab USA has consistently delivered for our customers and we’re scaling rapidly and setting new benchmarks every year. I want to dig deeper into the numbers across the business, starting with some highlights from Space Systems. For the year to date, we’ve signed $688 million in new contracts, up 319% from 2025. Today’s Space Systems sits at $1.7 billion in backlog, representing 48% of the total company’s backlog. $470 million in new Space Systems contracts was signed in this past quarter alone, a 512% increase from the same period last year. Incredibly strong growth here.
Operationally, the team has been executing at a high level with 12 Rocket Lab USA-built satellites launched in the past 12 months, including missions for NASA, the Space Force and large constellation operators. Our clean room and factories are busier than ever with more than 55 spacecraft in development and build. On the satellite component front, almost every team has exceeded their annual targets and increased production. We’re delivering more critical hardware and subsystems than ever before for our customers’ science, national security and commercial missions.
Like the title says, demand for launch has been exceptional this year. The two biggest commercial and defense bulk orders in our history landed in Q3: 18 HASTE launches for the Space Force’s Systems Command and 20 launches on Electron for our longtime commercial customer Synspective. Q3 has also been the biggest quarter yet for Neutron, eight launches signed for a total of roughly $515 million, including multiple missions on a new escalated base price of $70 million.
The demand is a function of both a tightening global launch supply and our customers’ confidence that Rocket Lab USA is the right partner to break the world’s launch bottleneck. It’s also been a record year for strategic acquisitions with new capabilities and technology added to our portfolio, including laser communications, robotics, payloads and machining capability. Iridium will go further still, evolving Rocket Lab USA into a true end-to-end space company that not only builds and launches spacecraft, but also owns and operates its own constellation with reoccurring revenue and growth opportunities for future space services.
Now, speaking of space services, I’ve historically referred to operating our own constellation as Space Applications, but going forward we’ve updated the terminology to better reflect the integrated end-to-end services we’ll be providing our customers once Iridium is part of Rocket Lab USA. We’ve made great progress this quarter towards closing the Iridium acquisition. The deal is now fully financed with the ATM completed in Q3 and we’ve secured Iridium’s credit facility for after the acquisition closes. This puts us in a great place where we do not need to raise extra capital to close the deal. Another key milestone was checked off when the Iridium shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of the transaction. Now we’re moving into the final phases, securing the necessary regulatory approvals.
This process is advancing well and we’re actively pursuing a timely close. The FCC’s recent swift approval of other acquisitions demonstrates the Commission’s proactive, decisive approach and its commitment to supporting the rapid pace of innovation required in the space sector. We’re enthusiastic about collaborating with the Commission as we guide to a generational space company in an exciting new era. Now on to Space Systems operational achievements. In the past 12 months, a dozen Rocket Lab USA-built spacecraft have launched and are now operating in space, spanning missions across national security, interplanetary science and commercial constellations. And there’s more to come. With more than 55 spacecraft in various stages of development and production. These include spacecraft for the Space Development Agency’s PWSA, multiple missions for NASA and the Space Force, and programs for commercial constellation operators.
Our clean rooms have never been busier and with more opportunities on the horizon, we expect that momentum to continue. Now onto launch for the quarter. What a fantastic slide. At the top of the call I talked about the record growth we’ve seen this year, but the third quarter has truly been exceptional. More than $1 billion in launch contracts in this quarter alone. No other commercial small rocket flies more than Electron and HASTE. And customers keep booking with us because they know that Rocket Lab USA has the track record, the technology and the team to deliver their missions.
And they know that’s what we’ll be bringing with Neutron, too. We’ve got the production capacity to back up that flight rate. Also, our experienced production facilities and streamlined processes mean we’re rolling a rocket off the production floor now at an average of one every eight workdays. This level of production means we can meet surges in customer demand like we’ve seen in Q3, and deliver on tight timelines to support rapid response missions and maintain the launch cadence that our customers have come to rely on.
Electron is closing in on its 100th launch, which we expect within the next week or so. As the graph shows, that puts Rocket Lab USA on track to reach 100 launches faster than any other commercially developed rocket in history. It’s an unprecedented milestone for a commercial small-lift orbital rocket, and a threshold rarely crossed in modern spaceflight. But what matters most to us and our customers is that we have achieved a 96% reliability rate across 99 launches.
That is a powerful combination few others can match. And that’s the experience we’re carrying on into Neutron. Speaking of which, here’s the latest on Neutron for the quarter. Since our update about Neutron Stage 1, we shifted our first launch timeline to 2027 after voids were found in the propellant tank’s forward dome. The team has really surged to manufacture a replacement part. The AFP machine has laminated a new forward dome. The structure has completed its cure cycle and the results show we’ve got a nice clean forward dome to move into assembly with the rest of Stage 1’s tank.
It’s nice to have that problem behind us now. We’ve already stacked the mid assembly of the Stage 1 tank, which includes a giant barrel section and common dome inside it that separates the liquid oxygen from the fuel tank. Our focus now moves on to completing the forward assembly and the aft assembly, which comprise domes stacked inside barrels similar to the mid assembly. Once that’s done, these three assemblies complete the Stage 1 tank. The team’s focus is on completing that work as soon as possible before we run the tank through a round of hydrostatic tests at the Neutron factory.
After that, we’ll ship it to Launch Complex 3, run a cryogenic chill campaign and then integrate it with the vehicle’s other major assemblies already in Virginia. Neutron Stage 2, the suspended stage that hangs in Stage 1, was delivered to Launch Complex 3 recently and has completed a number of pre-test activities before it heads into cryogenic proof tests. After that, we’ll move Stage 2 into wet dress rehearsals without an engine to test the stage early in its flight configuration. We’ll bring Stage 2 up to flight-like propellant levels and cycle through valve checks to make sure the stage is fully functional, as well as test how we transition from ground control to the stage autonomous flight computer during terminal count.
Then we will add the engines and we’ll integrate them and run through more tests before moving into static fires. The first piece of flight hardware on the LC-3 launch mount itself is Neutron’s thrust module. From the Neutron factory to Wallops Island to the launch mount within 48 hours. That’s the beauty of proximity with our facilities in Maryland and Virginia. Like Stage 2, we’ll be running Neutron’s thrust module through some very important early tests without its engines. By design, Neutron operates without a strongback on the launch mount, so the thrust module is the rocket’s only physical interface to the pad.
We’ll be checking things like launch pad mount hold-downs and release systems, quick disconnect operations, and then conduct some pressure tests and propellant tests to confirm all the interfaces work with the pad. It’s a great example of our parallel path development approach, systematically de-risking the pad and ground systems now to ensure a direct and efficient path to integrated testing with the entire vehicle when it’s complete. Turning to the Archimedes engine, we continue to make significant progress to finalize the engine, including recent cold box testing with the Archimedes vacuum variant for Stage 2. This is where we expose the engine to the same extreme cryogenic temperatures it will experience during Stage 1 flight to make sure its valves, seals, igniter and turbomachinery don’t freeze or leak. Successfully clearing these tests moves the qual campaign closer to the finish line and gives us a high confidence for the A‑VAC engine and its multiple-restart reliability for Flight 1.
That technical maturity is also feeding directly into the build of the Flight 1 engine set and the engines thereafter for Flight 2 and Flight 3 and so on. At the same time, we’re also exploring opportunities to ramp Archimedes production to a faster scale post Flight 1 and meet the high cadence demand for launches that we’re seeing. The massive surge in Neutron bookings this quarter is the strongest signal yet of where the launch market is headed. We signed eight missions for roughly $515 million, with multiple flights sold at an elevated base price of $70 million per launch. Neutron’s first 16 launches are booked and the next available slots are in the 2030s, alongside the capacity that we’re holding for space services missions. Launch is extremely constrained and that is exactly the situation we predicted.
We saw a pent-up launch market on the horizon, and rather than provide early discounted launches, we set out to deliver a rocket into an environment with extreme demand at full price or higher. A full manifest before Flight 1 shows you exactly how that’s played out. Even with the extra time we’re taking to get to first flight, our customers trust Rocket Lab USA to deliver and Neutron is the vehicle of choice. That wraps up the operational highlights. Now over to Adam for the financial overview and outlook.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Thanks, Pete. Third quarter 2026 revenue was a record $267.8 million, coming in above our prior guidance range of $250 to $265 million and representing year-over-year growth of 73%. Revenue increased by 14.4% sequentially driven by strong contribution from both business segments, highlighting continued momentum across the business. Our Space Systems segment delivered $214.8 million in revenue for the quarter, reflecting a sequential increase of 13.3%.
This growth was primarily driven by continued scaling of our satellite platform business along with full-quarter contributions from our laser communications and robotics acquisitions. We also delivered sequential organic growth across our other component and software businesses. Our Space Systems business continues to perform exceptionally well and provides diversification alongside our robust but at times lumpy launch business. Meanwhile, our Launch Services segment generated $53.1 million in revenue, representing a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase driven by a two-launch increase in point-in-time Electron missions where the full value of the launch is reflected at launch.
Now turning to gross margin, GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 33.6%, above our prior guidance range of 29% to 31%. Non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 38.4%, which was above our prior guidance range of 35% to 37%. Consistent with our Q3 guidance, margins declined sequentially primarily driven by the first full-quarter contribution from our recent acquisition Mynaric, which brings laser communications capabilities to our portfolio, as well as the lack of tariff refunds that benefited Q2 margins.
The decline was smaller than we anticipated, however, due to upside in our component businesses’ profitability, led by SolAero and our GEOST acquisition’s optical systems, as well as launch favorability driven by reduced production spend and favorable absorption due to a step-up in Electron launch and build cadence. As previously mentioned, Mynaric will take a few quarters to reach target margins as we align the cost structure, scale production, and implement the Rocket Lab USA operating system.
Additionally, we recorded a forward loss reserve against our Neutron Flight II launch vehicle to reflect the nascent stage of the vehicle and related early launch capability and potential impacts to that specific flight’s profitability or lack thereof. Relatedly, we ended Q3 with production-related headcount of 1,728, up 40 from the prior quarter. Turning to backlog, we ended Q3 2026 with approximately $3.6 billion in total backlog, up 52% sequentially from approximately $2.4 billion at the end of Q2, with Launch backlog accounting for approximately 52% and Space Systems representing 48%. We signed a significant volume of contracts across Launch and Space Systems in the third quarter, bringing our backlog to 117 launches and over 55 spacecraft and making 2026 an incredible year of backlog growth thus far.
As Pete mentioned, we signed 54 launches in the quarter, eight of which were for Neutron, with multiple contracts at a new escalated base price of $70 million, underscoring the growing demand and scarcity for medium-lift launch capacity. While bookings across Launch and Space Systems remain inherently lumpy due to the timing of larger high-impact program opportunities, backlog has grown even as we recognize revenue at a meaningfully higher run rate.
We continue to pursue additional needle-moving contract opportunities that we expect will enable us to sustain healthy backlog levels as revenue continues to scale. Looking ahead, we expect approximately 32.9% of our current backlog to convert into revenue within the next 12 months. Additionally, we continue to benefit from relatively quick-turns business across Launch and Space Systems components, businesses that drive incremental top-line contribution beyond the current 12-month backlog conversion.
Turning to operating expenses, GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $169.3 million, above our guidance range of $143 to $149 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $130.2 million, which was modestly above our guidance range of $121 to $127 million. The increase in GAAP operating expenses relative to our prior guidance was primarily driven by transaction costs associated with the pending acquisition of Iridium, including a $9.4 million expense associated with the change of control of Iridium’s existing term loan B facility, which was completed during the quarter, but neither the success nor cost could be estimated or predicted at the time we provided our Q3 guidance. In R&D, specifically, GAAP expenses increased $16 million quarter over quarter while non-GAAP expenses rose $17.2 million.
These increases were primarily driven by Neutron Flight 1 development and production activity, particularly engine production and carbon composite structures. As we progress towards launch, Q3 ending R&D headcount was 1,084, representing a decrease of three from the prior quarter. In SG&A, GAAP expenses increased $11.2 million quarter over quarter while non-GAAP expenses decreased $2.8 million. The increase in GAAP SG&A was primarily due to transaction fees associated with the pending Iridium acquisition I referenced earlier.
The decline in non-GAAP SG&A was primarily driven by early progress in realizing cost synergies from our Mynaric acquisition. Q3 ending SG&A headcount was 447, representing an increase of five from the prior quarter. In summary, total headcount at the end of the third quarter was 3,259, up 42 heads from the prior quarter. Turning to cash, purchases of property, equipment, and capitalized software licenses were $31.1 million in the third quarter of 2026, an increase of $5 million from the $26 million in the second quarter. This increase reflects continued investment in Neutron, including the recovery barge and launch and testing infrastructure. As we progress towards Neutron’s first flight and into production, we expect capital expenditures to remain elevated as we invest in testing, production scaling, and infrastructure expansion.
GAAP EPS for the third quarter was a loss of $0.12 per share compared to a loss of $0.08 per share in the second quarter. The sequential increase in GAAP loss per share was primarily driven by transaction costs in SG&A and other income, mostly due to the termination of the bridge loan commitment related to the pending Iridium acquisition referenced earlier. Spend also rose on Neutron engine prototyping and composites for the Flight 1 engine set and Stage 1 tank rebuild.
We expect Neutron spend to remain elevated through first launch, driven by engine materials and the team’s labor run rate as costs shift towards sub-assembly test campaigns and vehicle integration. GAAP operating cash flow was a positive $7.2 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to a use of $84.1 million in the second quarter. This increase is primarily due to a step-up in milestone payments on satellite programs, which are lumpy and increasing in magnitude.
Similar to the capital expenditure dynamics mentioned earlier, cash consumption will remain elevated due to Neutron development and Neutron production as we scale the business and as we procure longer-lead items for our SDA programs. Overall, non-GAAP free cash flow, defined as GAAP operating cash flow less purchases of property, equipment, and capitalized software, in the third quarter of 2026 was a use of $23.9 million compared to a use of $110.1 million in the second quarter.
The ending balance of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities was roughly $4.7 billion at the end of the third quarter. The sequential increase in liquidity was driven by proceeds from sales of our common stock under our At-The-Market equity offering programs, which generated approximately $2.4 billion in gross proceeds through the issuance of 36.8 million shares, and we completed this program mid-September. Together with Iridium’s amended term loan facility and our available liquidity, these proceeds fully fund the cash consideration and other funds necessary for our pending acquisition of Iridium, which allowed us to terminate our $3.6 billion bridge facility commitment. We exited Q3 in a strong position to execute on both organic and inorganic growth initiatives, including further vertically integrating our supply chain, expanding our strategic capabilities, and growing our addressable market, consistent with what we’ve done successfully in the past.
Adjusted EBITDA loss for the third quarter of 2026 was $18 million, which was towards the low end of our guidance range of a $17–$23 million loss. The sequential $9.2 million increase in adjusted EBITDA loss was primarily driven by elevated R&D spending due to Neutron. With that, let’s turn to our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. We expect revenue in the fourth quarter to range between $270 million and $290 million, representing 4.5% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth at the midpoint and growth of 55.9% from the year-ago quarter. We expect strong growth in Launch revenue with a pickup in both point-in-time and over-time revenues, partially offset by a decline in Space Systems. Within Space Systems, SolAero and satellite platforms are expected to decline coming off of very strong Q3 performances, while the rest of Space Systems businesses should be up.
We expect GAAP gross margin to range between 34% to 36% and non-GAAP gross margin to range between 39% to 41%. Margins are expected to improve sequentially due to improved mix between Launch and Space Systems, and within Space Systems. We expect fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses to range between $162 million and $168 million and non-GAAP operating expenses to range between $136 million and $142 million. The quarter-on-quarter increases are primarily driven by Neutron development, testing, and readiness activities ahead of Flight 1.
We continue to expect a shift in spending from R&D to Flight 2 and subsequent Neutron production inventory, which is an encouraging sign of progress as we move closer to Neutron’s first flight and supports our path towards meaningful operating leverage and positive cash flow in the future. We expect fourth quarter net interest income to be $45 million, which is generally a function of our elevated cash balance. We expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA loss to range between $14 million and $20 million and basic weighted average common shares outstanding to be approximately 681 million shares.
Lastly, consistent with prior quarters, we expect negative non-GAAP free cash flow in the fourth quarter to remain at elevated levels, driven by ongoing investments in Neutron development and scaling production. In summary, Q3 was another quarter of strong execution. We exceeded guidance for revenue and gross margins, grew backlog to a record $3.6 billion, and continue to maintain robust liquidity to fund future growth initiatives. We expect this momentum to continue, guiding to increased revenue growth as our satellite platforms business scales and Neutron progresses towards its first flight. We continue to execute across all metrics and are positioned to create significant value ahead.
Last but not least, here are some of the upcoming investor events that we’ll be attending in the next few months, and with that, we’ll hand the call over to the operator for questions.
OPERATOR
As a reminder, if you’d like to ask a question at this time, please press star-1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star-1-1 again. Our first question comes from Andres Shepard with Cantor Fitzgerald.
Andre
Hey everyone, good afternoon and congratulations on the quarter and the backlog. And as always, thanks for taking our questions. Pete, I wanted to maybe start with Neutron. So last quarter, I think we asked, what does the path to 10 Neutron launches look like as we look beyond the first one? So I guess after the slight shift in Neutron’s first launch, how are you thinking about the path to 10 Neutron launches now, and what’s the quickest that we might be able to get there?
Thank you.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Hey Andre, great to chat here. Yeah, I mean, obviously we’re always trying to revisit that 1, 3, 5, and I think there’s an intense scrutiny on that at the moment, and a lot of the things that we’ve been doing in the background during this period of some of these delays has been to strengthen our ability to increase that rate. So I think we’re looking to improve on that rate and you can see we’ve got a huge backlog to start chewing through, so I don’t think we’re ready to revise those numbers yet.
But there’s been a tremendous amount of work going on in the background as to how we can increase that rate to get to Flight 10 faster.
Andre
Excellent. That’s very helpful. Appreciate that. And maybe just a quick one for Adam. So on the backlog, again, very exciting to see the material increase here. I think we can probably call this year the year of the backlog. My question is actually more around ASPs for launch. So if I heard you correctly, I think you disclosed that future Neutron ASPs will increase to about 70 million, which is exciting. So I guess my question there is how should we think about maybe Electron and HASTE launches for next year and beyond, and is there an opportunity to perhaps increase ASPs here given how launch constrained the industry still is?
Thank you.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, no, it’s a good question, Andre. So I would say, just to be clear too, that the Neutron pricing isn’t going to 70, it’s at 70. Right. So we’ve already put some in backlog at that price. I think from here the price is, you know, I would say logically going up from that new baseline. When it comes to Electron and HASTE, I think, you know, some of the same dynamics are in play when, you know, Pete mentioned in his prepared remarks about how demand has never been stronger and how, you know, we’re the leading launch provider, you know, in that small dedicated launch segment. I mean, that’s just becoming more and more the fact. I think when, if I look at now where we are and where the demand is coming from, Electron, I don’t think I necessarily would have predicted to be kind of in this new growth wave.
It seems like things were growing very nicely and then there’s been another leg up in demand and, with that, you should expect pricing will go up as well. And we’re also starting to see that reflect in the backlog. So I think you’re going to see price increases across Electron and HASTE, and HASTE now is representing a bigger, bigger piece of our backlog, which naturally comes at higher ASPs. So I think the combination of lifting prices across all of our launch services is going to start to be more evident in the model going forward.
So I feel very good about where we’re at.
Andre
Excellent. Thank you again. Congrats on the quarter. We’ll pass it on.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank.
Edison Yu (Analyst at Deutsche Bank)
Hi. Thank you for taking our questions. One to ask about orbital data centers. I think in the past we’ve probably been, I think you guys have been a little bit more skeptical than certainly one company out there. And you had this midterm election in the U.S., which I think many people suspect could slow down the terrestrial buildout. What is your latest thinking, I guess, on what you could potentially do on the space systems side for orbital, and would you expect kind of interest to increase going forward just given what happened last week?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah. Hey Edison. So we’ve always, like you say, retained a healthy level of kind of skepticism, but I would say that we’ve always been bullish, certainly on defense-based orbital data centers, and also clearly I’ve been wrong plenty of times. So we certainly weren’t going to cut off any opportunities for ourselves, hence the reasons why we developed and brought to market the new silicon valve for orbital data centers. Obviously we have an orbital data center customer for a Neutron vehicle, and I would say that like everybody else, we are doing our fair share of work around that opportunity.
So we certainly haven’t written it off, and we are monitoring all of the events and, like I say, doing our work to make sure that if we are able to gain conviction, then we’re in a really good place to be able to capitalise on that.
Edison Yu (Analyst at Deutsche Bank)
Understood. And just to follow up to that, as you kind of think about the architectures for orbital data centers out there, what do you view as the kind of biggest engineering or technical bottlenecks, or is it more of a kind of economics thing?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, for me it’s economics. There’s a number of kind of key things that have to happen for those economics to close, and those key things are extremely difficult. So yeah, I think there need to be some major technological advances to unlock the economics. I think if you want to put smaller data centers or data centers of a small scale in orbit, I think that’s all completely doable, hence the reasons why we are very bullish on orbital data centers for secure comms or defense purposes.
I think it will definitely happen. But moving all data centers off Earth into space, I think there’s a few challenges to solve there.
Edison Yu (Analyst at Deutsche Bank)
Thank you.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from John Godden with Citigroup.
John Godden (Analyst at Citigroup)
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Congratulations on being fastest to 100 launches on the Electron, even faster than the Falcon 9. Of course, years later, the Falcon 9 is doing 170 launches or so a year. So I thought it’s just a good opportunity to revisit the multiyear outlook for Electron launches. And if you could also just talk a bit about how the outlook for Electron growth evolves eventually alongside Neutron.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah. Hey John. Well, we’re not done yet. Give us a chance. But, you know, Electron obviously is not a reusable vehicle. So the big unlock for huge cadence, of course, is reusability. Although, you know, as you can see with the factory and the production rate that we have currently, you know, we can produce a fair bit of those. But, you know, next year will be a big year for Electron. We have a huge manifest lined up for Electron and we don’t see that subsiding, especially in this market with the likes of other providers of rideshare going away, then the next logical alternative is, of course, an Electron.
So we see tremendous traction there. But the nice thing about Electron is at least it was designed to be produced. So as you can see, you know, we’re producing one every eight days. There’s no technological feat required to double, triple, whatever that at this point. It’s just duplicating additional factory lines and that kind of thing. You can see with our pads, we have multiple pads around the world. So we’re well endowed on that side of it. So I think there’s not too many limiters on Electron and there haven’t been ever really.
It’s how fast the market will grow and evolve to whatever cadence that it ultimately ends up at.
John Godden (Analyst at Citigroup)
That’s great, appreciate it. And if I could just sort of ask a little bit of a different question. Just on supply chain, you know, huge amount of satellites in development and build, obviously. Launch cadence also growing. Just a temperature check on the space supply chain. Anything kind of emerging as an issue that should be a watch item?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, not so much for us because we’re so vertically integrated, we control so much of our own supply chain. So, you know, for us, probably the things that we worry about are different things than other people who are building satellites and procuring components from us and others worry about. And for us it’s, you know, because we are transforming raw materials into finished items. It’s more raw materials. There are some critical minerals and whatnot that continue to be a challenge for a number of industries.
But I think as we look across our supply chain, it really devolves all the way down to just raw materials rather than any particular items.
John Godden (Analyst at Citigroup)
Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Jan Angelbrecht with Baird.
Jan Angelbrecht (Analyst at Baird)
Good afternoon, Peter, Adam and Muriel. Thanks for taking our questions. Perhaps a high-level question, but we’ve obviously read a lot about the tightening launch availability later this decade. But I wanted to, from your side, what are customers seeing in Neutron that gives them confidence to commit to these launches before first flight? I know we can talk about mission fit, the technical due diligence and obviously the 96% mission success rate.
But perhaps are there things that they obviously have access to information and access to you guys that we just can’t see in the public domain that you can just speak to more? It’s obviously very impressive to see 16 Neutrons in backlog. Anything you could share there? Thank you.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, well, I mean, I think it comes down to fundamentally, there have been two commercial companies that have developed a vehicle, brought it to market and scaled, and that has been SpaceX and Rocket Lab USA. So when folks walk around—and they do; nobody buys a rocket off a brochure—they come and see us and they walk through the factories and walk out to the launch pad. And we’re very transparent with our development process and the state thereof.
So, you know, customers are able to get confidence through their own eyes. And, you know, I think this industry is littered with poor execution and, you know, we’ve worked hard to make sure that we have a reputation of not that.
Jan Angelbrecht (Analyst at Baird)
Thanks, Peter. Helpful. And then if I may, just a follow up, just for 2027. I know you guys aren’t guiding that yet, but is 20% growth from a launch perspective for HASTE and commercial Electron still sort of the right way to think about it? And obviously you guys were a third of the backlog of the prior quarter was HASTE, which is obviously very attractive from a revenue recognition perspective. And then maybe just to comment on—still tied to launch and HASTE specifically—it looks like most of MACH-TB and that program is placed in the base budget.
So we assume very little reconciliation risk for HASTE. Thank you.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, I guess I can take the first part of that. So I think on the launch CAGR, I don’t think there’s any reason to think that 20% continuing is really at risk. I think that we’re seeing demand, as we talked about earlier, continuing to grow. So I think the growth, you know, in my view should be better in many ways next year than we even saw from 25 to 26. So all the demand dynamics are in place, the pricing dynamics are in place. Now it’s just a matter of execution.
But, you know, we also have to remind people that execution really has, you know, two angles to it. Right. We have to have the rockets ready, of course, but also, you know, our customers need to be ready with their payloads. And oftentimes in the past, you know, if there’s been a bit of a hiccup on launch cadence in any given quarter, it’s really not been because of the rockets not being ready. It’s because the customers will have—you know, understandable—they’ll have issues at the last moment.
They put their spacecraft after the final set of tests and something may not come out to their expectations. So they have to put it back through test, and that can cause delays. So I think what helps us mitigate that is having such a strong backlog of missions that we can, you know, and many. We have the luxury at sometimes of being able to do a little bit of, you know, swapping around missions and still keep our cadence going. But it’s really two pieces. And again, I feel very comfortable that all, you know, it’s not going to be a demand challenge.
You know, hopefully our customers don’t create delivery challenges. And, and I believe our production teams will be able to deliver the vehicles next year to grow even faster than this year.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Steiner (Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch)
Hi, Peter and Adam. This is Andrew Steiner on for Ron. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to touch on launch capacity again. I think Q3 backlog and rising Neutron launch prices did a good job telling the story of tightening capacity. But with a satellite operator declaring it’s going to build a rocket, it seems worse than many may have thought, or at least myself. Is that a fair takeaway from AST’s announcement last week? And I guess, how do you guys think about a new unproven launch provider entering the market as a potentially viable competitor?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah. Hey, Andrew, I was hoping someone wasn’t going to ask that question. So the launch capacity is incredibly constrained and as constrained as you kind of see. And, you know, in many respects we’re rooting for everybody because, you know, even when we bring Neutron to market, it’s not going to satisfy the demand that’s required. So, you know, and also 50% of Neutron is for everybody else and 50% is for us. So I think we’ve always followed the thesis that the large space companies of the future are going to have their ability to launch their own stuff.
And I think this is kind of playing out.
Andrew Steiner (Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch)
Gotcha. And I guess just in a different direction here. It was nice to see the operating cash flow in Q3. How should we be thinking about cash generation going forward, ex Iridium, just given higher launch prices? And what does the ultimate cash generation profile look like once Iridium is integrated into the business fully? Thanks.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, look, I think that the rising prices for Electron are certainly helping. I think getting the deposits in for Neutron launches are helping, but nothing is really going to, I’d say, permanently kind of reverse the cash flow negativity until Neutron is really into production. Right. So I think that’s why, you know, rightly so, all eyes are on Neutron, getting that to the launch pad and successfully through its first test flight and then scaling into production.
I think that’s really. We’ve long said that, you know, we turn, you know, cash flow positive probably about six months or so after Neutron’s first flight. Right. Because that’s when things have really pivoted into production. Now, obviously, that changes pretty dramatically upon the closure of the Iridium acquisition, because they already come with strong cash flow. And we’ve got lots of interesting ideas to improve on that, obviously. But I think that, again, we’re focused on right now is how do we scale our business and turn it into a cash flow positive one. And really, all of it hinges right now on Neutron. There’s not quite yet enough scale in Space, although that business is scaling very, very nicely, to offset a pretty significant lift for Neutron.
And that’s just the nature of bringing a new product like Neutron to market. But again, as Pete mentioned earlier in his remarks, we’re making great progress there, and we’re looking forward to that date sooner rather than later.
Andrew Steiner (Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch)
Gotcha. Thanks.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Trevor Walsh with Citizens.
Trevor Walsh (Analyst at Citizens)
Great. Hey, James, thanks for taking the questions. Peter, if I could start with you. I think when you all made the announcements about the slipping of Neutron into next year, you alluded to some changes or I guess maybe your ability to do some other work, given the delayed timing similar to when you had the previous delay around the tank. Could you maybe just provide a little bit more color about what that extra activity is and how, kind of, with that extra time that you’re given and how that might influence either follow-on launches and kind of, I think, some to your comments around the 135 cadence, or just reusability, or just give us a little bit more perspective on kind of what else you’re allowed to do now, given the extended time frame.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah. Hey, Trevor, good question. I mean, it has been all around, you know, how do we increase the launch cadence faster? Because that’s obviously the critical thing. So that’s primarily where the work has gone. It’s around engine production, engine acceptance test, and then also composite structures, production and acceptance test, and moving all of those things faster. So we haven’t been kind of acting in a serial fashion. A lot of these things are happening in parallel.
So while the tank area is experiencing delays, you know, avionics and fluid systems and all of that have not stopped scaling. And, you know, we see. I’ve been pretty resolute about the 135. You know, I would say the pressure at this point to increase that is overwhelming. And we are looking at every lever we can pull to increase that flight cadence. And I think we’ve got some really good options there, and we can talk about that a little bit later once those are solidified. But it’s fair to say that where our headspace is: obviously, flight one is important, but there’s a lot more big brains thinking about really, really, how do we increase scaling faster right now.
Trevor Walsh (Analyst at Citizens)
Awesome. Perfect. Thanks for the color, Peter. Adam, maybe switching over to you kind of along the same lines, just given the uptick in R and D expense, which I know is you, what we’ve been talking about for a while is very much tied to Neutron. How should we think about that line and maybe just more broadly? You had some good comments around cash flow, previous questions, so maybe a bit more about EBITDA and just general profitability, just given again, given the delay of Neutron.
And how should we think about that? I know you’re not giving 27 guide yet, but just how should we maybe think about that R and D line specifically, kind of heading into next year, that things have changed or maybe moved around a bit?
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, I think fortunately our Space Systems segment, which is now by far the largest part of our business, I wouldn’t consider that overly R and D intensive. So I think that we’ll continue to invest there at a pace that continues to drive the top-line expectations that we have for longer-term CAGR, which we’ve long said is kind of 20% or so, is kind of where we set the bar for that. Launch is going to grow faster than that, because when we start introducing Neutron into the mix, I want to clarify, too, that I think I may have missed it.
The cash flow positivity is a little bit delayed later than the six quarters after the first launch. That’s really when adjusted EBITDA turns. Cash flow is really more of a function, too, of where we are in investing in the fleet of Neutrons. And that’s going to take a little bit longer. And that goes back to the question that Pete addressed, which is how can we look to scale the business faster? There might be some things in there that are capital intensive in order for us to really get that rate even higher than what we’ve already talked about.
So I think that, you know, right now, again, all hands on deck as far as getting Neutron to the pad, getting that first flight off. And I think, you know, the financial model benefits tremendously from when that happens. And again, first reflected in adjusted EBITDA, which will turn positive, you know, within six months of that first successful test flight. And then cash flow is going to follow that, again pending some decisions that we make on how much of an accelerator we want to put on growing the fleet.
Because the beautiful thing about Neutron as a reusable vehicle is that, you know, you’re going to build the greatest number of vehicles, in all likelihood, at the beginning of the program. Right. And then once you get those established, then the power of reuse really starts to influence the model. That’s when margins expand dramatically and that’s when cash flow really starts to gain momentum. So hopefully that answers your question. I think, again, R and D, we don’t see any big R and D needle movers aside from Neutron. And then, of course, you know, once we’ve gotten Iridium across the line, then of course we’re always looking at ways to accelerate growth. And, you know, some of that might require a little more R and D than maybe has been historically in that model. But we feel very good also about some of the growth vectors that they’ve kind of been investing in for the last few years that are just on the precipice of starting to kick in in a major way.
Trevor Walsh (Analyst at Citizens)
Great, thanks both. Appreciate the questions.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Christine Leweg with Morgan Stanley.
Christine Leweg (Analyst at Morgan Stanley)
Hey, good afternoon everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. So maybe one on unit economics on Neutron. Now you have more production reps under your belt and you’ve now changed your manufacturing process for some of the products, how is the bill of materials tracking against your original steady-state model? And when you think about the efficiency gains from the automated composite layup and Archimedes production, are there areas where things are costing less than you expected?
And then pairing that with a $70 million base launch price, which is a very— and by the way, congratulations on that significant step up in pricing. How should we think about margins going forward? I mean, I would anticipate that with a significant $15 million pricing than your initial thought, you can get to that gross margin 30 to 40% sooner, but then also have a higher steady-state gross margin. So any thoughts on long-term gross margin on Neutron would be helpful.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, I’ll just hit the top-level stuff and then Pete can dive into some of the engineering pieces of that. But I would say certainly the step up in ASP is certainly going to help us get there faster. I think we’ve always had conviction that this is a 50% plus gross margin business on a non-GAAP basis. I think that there have been some speculations about what a comparable reusable vehicle’s margins are at scale. I think we’ve seen some of that with SpaceX coming public.
But I think that just as we’ve seen a pretty significant expansion in Electron’s gross margins, largely a function—some of it’s come down to BOM cost reductions, but that’s really not what moves the needle in the launch business. It’s really about absorbing those fixed costs over a greater number of launches. Right. So I think if you think about normal BOM reductions in the, call it, 6 to 10% range on an annualized basis, it certainly helps, but it doesn’t move the needle nearly as much as doubling your launch cadence when you go from three launches a year to five launches a year to ten launches a year.
And that’s really what’s going to drive the economics in Neutron. But again, I think certainly where ASPs are trending is very, very helpful and I personally don’t think that we’re yet at the end of the pricing curve for Neutron. It’s very early days.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think you covered it well, Adam. I mean BOM is a relatively small expense. It’s all the facilities and the headcount and the overhead that
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
…really drive a lot of the costs in a vehicle. You have to maintain factories, launch sites, and all those kinds of things—barges. So the BOM is not out of whack for sure, but it’s probably the lower influence to margins.
Christine Leweg (Analyst at Morgan Stanley)
Great, super helpful. And if I could pivot to spectrum, there’s a lot more industry focus right now on spectrum value, and Iridium gives you the globally coordinated L-band. But when you think about how L-band is naturally bandwidth constrained, as you map out where you want Rocket Lab to be in the next five to 10 years, do you feel like Iridium spectrum is sufficient for your constellation ambitions? Or do you think you’ll need to acquire a partner for higher throughput spectrum like Ku- and Ka-band and execute your vision as a full space-as-a-service company?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
That’s a very tricky way to ask us, Christine, what future constellations might be. But right now I think we’re very happy with L-band. I really like the power of L-band given its ability to penetrate bad weather and environments, and that safety-critical, defense-critical part of the industry I think is really interesting and poised for a lot of growth. So at the moment, the L-band’s fine. Of course, we’re always looking at spectrum. We are in the comms business now, so spectrum is relevant to us, but certainly no imminent acquisitions of additional spectrum.
Christine Leweg (Analyst at Morgan Stanley)
Great. Thank you very much. Take care.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Securities.
Gautam Khanna (Analyst at TD Securities)
Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about demand for Neutron, given, as you mentioned, you know, industry capacity for launch has sold out a number of years. Maybe if you could just talk about—that would suggest there’s urgency for customers to place orders, you know, before Neutron is proven successful at first launch. So maybe if you could just talk about the number of launch opportunities you’re pursuing and what we might expect for launch bookings in Q4 or Q1. You know, like, is the pipeline pretty full? So we could see quarters similar to what we just experienced in Q3?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, Gautam. It’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Certainly, you know, there’s tremendous demand for the soonest launch slots available, which has pushed us into the next available slots now in the 2030s, and, you know, all the work that’s going on in the background to increase cadence. So, you know, I think we’ve seen, like I say, extreme demand and customers that we’ve had long relationships with and have worked with us a long time literally solidify their intentions extremely quickly, and that’s been consistent.
And then, you know, going forward, the important thing to remember also is, as I said prior, 50% of Neutron’s capacity is for everybody else, and 50% is for us. So we always have to make sure that we retain enough capacity for our own aspirations.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
I would say also, to add one more bit of context—a little bit of inside baseball. So, you know, we could have actually booked more launches in Q3 for Neutron than we did, but we actually chose to go for higher ASP and lower volume. So there were customers that wanted to book more launches, but at a slightly lower price. And we kind of, again, stuck to the philosophy that Pete mentioned earlier, where we’re not looking to sell launches at a discount price.
We want to make sure that we’re maximizing the value. And so we’re choosing to be very discriminating about which business we take and how much we take now, because, again, I think our bias is we think prices are going to continue to go up. So why sell out all the capacity now at these prices even—
Gautam Khanna (Analyst at TD Securities)
Makes sense. Thank you very much.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Andre Madrid with BTIG.
Andre Madrid (Analyst at BTIG)
Yep. Thanks for taking my question. Good afternoon. I wanted to touch on—well, it seems I got beaten to it. I was going to ask if you had been having conversations with the Office of Strategic Capital about potentially supporting Neutron development. Literally just a couple of minutes ago, an announcement came out just on that, maybe a bit more—$150 million. Maybe the terms of that loan commitment, exactly how the funds are expected to be allocated.
Any color there would be greatly appreciated.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Sorry. Yeah, so look, I think we’re pretty fortunate to be in a position to take advantage of this type of non-dilutive financing. You always take it where you can get it. I think it’s on very attractive terms. I believe it’s like SOFR plus 100 basis points. So it gives us additional capital to scale key parts of our business—Neutron in particular. You know, I think we’ve—we’re very fortunate that we’ve had the ability since I joined the company almost nine years ago to make sure that financing the business wasn’t a constraint on growth.
And this continues to be the case. I think it also just underscores the importance of how launch capacity is very much in focus of the administration, and they’re putting some real meat behind trying to alleviate the problem. And I think this certainly does help. So I think this is a helpful indicator, a very positive indicator about where everyone sees the demand constraint and how it can be unlocked. And, you know, capital is certainly a part of that.
So, yeah, this is just certainly helpful to our cause to help scale Neutron even faster.
Andre Madrid (Analyst at BTIG)
That’s very helpful. And then maybe kind of staying on the government support, I mean, given that we’re under a continuing resolution right now, are you expecting this to have any—depending on the length of the CR—a more aggressive impact or not? Or maybe just tell me a bit more about how you guys are thinking about it within your own internal models. How should we be thinking about the length of a CR and its potential impact on the business heading into ’27?
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
It’s very difficult to predict how government funding is going to go. I think that for us, I think Pete mentioned earlier, a lot of programs that we’re in are already funded. I think they’re very strategic. We don’t really see a lot of risk to our programs in particular, but certainly having more clarity on where the budget’s going to come from and where it’s going from here would certainly be helpful. But I don’t know, Pete, if you got any views on that.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
No, I agree with you, Adam. I think it’s relatively low risk for us.
Andre Madrid (Analyst at BTIG)
Got it. Appreciate the color. Thanks, team.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Jeff Van Re with Craig-Hallum.
Daniel
Hey Peter, Adam, this is Daniel on for Jeff. Congrats on the quarter. On the next 12-month backlog—so that in particular is one of the metrics we follow the most. It’s up 47% sequentially. I think that might be the strongest quarter for that ever. Just maybe a little bit more commentary on the next 12-month backlog in particular. Wondering what drove that. And I say that in particular because I assume obviously there’s huge launch backlog growth, but a lot of that’s the out years and isn’t in the next 12 months.
And then when I look at Space Systems backlog, that’s up 22%. So this is up even more than Space Systems. Maybe certain businesses are coming in or pulling in faster than you expected, where maybe some of the durations are pulling in. Just any commentary on the strength there?
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, look, it’s clearly Electron HASTE are huge benefactors right now. Pete mentioned what some of those drivers are. I actually think that Electron HASTE again are coming into a new leg of growth. And I think it’s driven by the fact that I think people are just now starting to realize that on the non-HASTE side of that equation that the future lack of Transporter and bandwagon like everyone’s concerned about is going to have to go somewhere. And when you look at what the next best alternative is, it really is Electron.
Right. So I think that we may not even yet be seeing the real impact of that—maybe just very early kind of canaries in the coal mine. So that bodes very well for that business. But as we’ve talked about in other periods, the Space Systems business has grown to be a very, very large piece of the business, approaching 80%. And while that will rebalance when Neutron starts to launch, and also as Electron and HASTE continue to grow, that business is a bit more lumpy. We’ve got a pretty nice mix, I would say, between our components business and our platforms business. But those, particularly on the platform side, come in kind of lumpy awards.
They’re getting increasingly large, they take longer to close, but they really do move the needle when they happen. And that also provides some longer-term de-risking where you’re less likely to hit an air pocket if you’ve got a lot of that equipment kind of in backlog, obviously. So I think overall in the near term, to your 12-month question, it really is Electron HASTE, because we put some pretty, pretty nice programs into backlog in the most recent quarter, and I would say that that is probably going to continue.
And then again, I think this is probably one of the quarters where we didn’t have, I would say, a really large Space Systems platforms program that got put into backlog, and those again take longer, but we’re very comfortable with how we position that business. There’ll be more of those to come.
Daniel
Yeah, maybe on that note, that’s a natural segue to Space Systems. We haven’t talked about that too much. High level, in terms of what’s coming next, should we be thinking about some of the key opportunities being some of the more obvious ones like tranche-forward tracking down the road, or maybe expanded work on moving target indicators, space-based interceptors? I mean, obviously there’s a lot going on at the Space Force right now. And also on the commercial side, just maybe some thoughts on where you see some of the emerging or strongest opportunities coming from.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, I’ll take that one, Adam. I think, Daniel, it’s across all of them. Right. And kind of back to your previous question, I would say that Space Systems has reached a level of maturity and cadence that it’s just humming right now. And, you know, it’s taken us a while. Obviously we invested a lot in components and in making sure we have the elements. So when a customer comes to us now, they can expect best value and certainly the best timeline, but also high—100% confidence that the spacecraft that they’re going to get built and delivered works and meets their requirements.
So whether it’s going to Mars—and we just did a couple of those trans-Mars injection burns over the last 24 to 48 hours—or commercial constellations for comms, we have all the bits sitting on the shelf that we can put together quickly. We have all the designs that we can reuse and the execution is trusted, and we build reliable platforms. And I know that that just sounds like table stakes, but it’s not as common as you think in the space industry for all of those things to occur.
So I would say that a lot of returning customers are creating more and more opportunities for us and continuing to feed itself in many respects.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
I would add just a little bit to that. I think we haven’t yet really started to see the influence of other sovereigns’ investments in space. I think that’s probably the next demand signal to really start to emerge. Because if you look at our backlog today, the vast majority of it is U.S.-derived on the Space Systems platform side, particularly around SDA Tranche 2 and SDA Tranche 3 and AMTI and so forth. But I think that the benefit that we, or the position we find ourselves in, is that the industrial base doesn’t really exist in a lot of these places that are realizing they need these capabilities. And so it’ll be a very helpful thing to people like us that have all those capabilities, as Pete said, that are on the shelf to pull things together relatively quickly. And again, I don’t think that that has really started to be reflected in the model yet.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Michael Lishock with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Michael Lishock (Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
Hey, good afternoon. I wanted to ask on Neutron and your expectations of about 50% of the launches there to be internal for yourself. When do you expect that first internal Neutron launch, and is that something that comes after you get through your entire existing backlog, or could an internal launch come before then? And then, I guess in the same vein, does that look like an Iridium-related launch to update the constellation in the mid-2030s, or are you expecting the internal Neutrons to be primarily used for a separate Rocket Lab USA initiative in the future?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Michael? Number of different reasons. One, having your own platform enables you to retire a whole bunch of risk and new technologies and new ideas, and the marginal cost for us to do so is really, really low. Iridium’s constellation will need replaced at some point, so certainly Neutron is a key enabler for that. And when I say 50% for us and 50% for everybody else, that’s not out of the chute, obviously. You know, we’ll burn down a whole bunch of contracted launch, so that number will skew to our customers really heavily for quite some time.
But I would say that the long-term view and the long-term kind of expectation, at least for me, is the 50/50. So certainly not imminent. But in the longer term we expect to have not just one service or application in-house, but we expect to have many, not just Iridium, but other things. So reserving that capacity now is just prudent.
Michael Lishock (Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
And then I wanted to ask on the Alaska pad. What’s the latest update on the buildout there in Alaska, and should we expect the first launch in ’27, early ’27 or otherwise, and how many HASTE launches will that pad be able to handle annually? Thank you.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, that’s a great question. So there’s actually two pads there, not one pad. There’s two pads side by side. So its capacity is pretty high because, you know, we can turn a launch, as people have seen, in 16 hours, 42 minutes. I think we have plenty of capacity there and remain on track for 2027 launch out of those pads and multiple thereof.
Michael Lishock (Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
Great, thank you.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Eric Rasmussen with Stifel.
Eric Rasmussen (Analyst at Stifel)
Yeah, thanks, and congrats on the backlog growth and Neutron bookings. Maybe just a lot of questions have been sort of answered here, but on Iridium, which opportunities could maybe accelerate Iridium’s growth within the first two years that you think, once you close the acquisition? Maybe we’ll start there.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah. Hey, Eric, look, they’ve got some really exciting things, as Adam alluded to, that they’ve been working over the last couple of years. So some of those around PNT and Direct-to-Device they’ve been working on. I think under a Rocket Lab USA umbrella, I think there’s a bit more freedom to push harder and faster. So I think those will be brought to the fore, hopefully in short succession.
Eric Rasmussen (Analyst at Stifel)
Great. And then maybe you’ve obviously talked a lot about Electron and HASTE and the strength there. And I think Adam touched upon sort of a 20% or plus cadence for next year. But what does that mix look like for next year in terms of, if we are at a 20-plus percent CAGR next year, what is that mix between standard Electrons versus HASTE? Thanks.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
I’m always hesitant to answer those ones because it’s 100% determined on customers’ programs and their ability to execute and deliver on time. I think nominally there’s something like 15 HASTE missions, but those HASTE missions are highly dependent on customers’ programs and turning up on time. So it’s kind of hard to say with any certainty because it can move around pretty wildly just from quarter to quarter.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
Yeah, Eric, I think a little more specifically, I think that right now—again, we’re not giving guidance for 2027—but roughly around 25% of the total small dedicated launches could be HASTE. Next year could be a little bit more, could be, but in that range.
Eric Rasmussen (Analyst at Stifel)
Great, that’s helpful. Appreciate it.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Anthony Valentini with Barclays.
Anthony Valentini (Analyst at Barclays)
Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. What quarter or month are you guys marching towards internally for Neutron in 2027?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Well, we haven’t provided guidance on that just yet because we need to get through the stage one tank. And I think if I provide a date, clearly I’ve been wrong. So the approach we took instead is to provide sort of weekly, or in some cases bi-daily, updates on the progress of that tank. And really until that tank is through the gauntlet of all of its testing, I just don’t want to be continually wrong.
Anthony Valentini (Analyst at Barclays)
Totally valid. It makes sense. I know that you guys are focused on Neutron here, but it seems like the industry is going larger and more reusable. And for some of these future aspirational things like orbital data centers, it seems like you need larger rockets. And so I guess I’m curious from your perspective, Pete, are any of the things that you guys have aspirations to build out dependent on having a larger rocket? And do you guys think that you will have a new product after Neutron once you guys are launching at cadence?
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Oh man, I don’t want to build another rocket. I think two is enough for any person. But in all seriousness, if you look at the average mass that Falcon 9 has lifted in its commercial sense—ignoring Starlink—it’s about five tons. And some of the sizing designs that we worked through with Neutron—The reason why we landed on 13 tons was to enable human spaceflight. That was basically what pushed it up to that 13-ton class. Now, when you’re deploying constellations, the way you need to think about it is not cost per kilo on your rocket; it’s actually cost per satellite delivered in orbit. That’s the only metric that matters. And you can achieve that with a large rocket launching infrequently or a smaller rocket launching more frequently. But certainly as we look out into our future and the things that we want to go and deliver, Neutron is perfectly sized. I think your point is valid: if you wanted to put up data centers, which is just a tonnage equation, then a large vehicle makes perfect sense.
But I think, to date, the most successful rocket in history is sized around where Neutron sits. And although the future might change, I think for any of the aspirations we currently have and any of the large teams that we want to play in, Neutron is plenty big enough.
Anthony Valentini (Analyst at Barclays)
Okay, great, great answer, Pete. I appreciate it.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
But just in saying that, I did have to eat a hat because I once said I was never going to build a bigger rocket. So—
Anthony Valentini (Analyst at Barclays)
Never say never, yeah.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yep, yep. So never say never.
Anthony Valentini (Analyst at Barclays)
Understood. Thank you.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Suji DaSilva with Roth Capital.
Suji DaSilva (Analyst at Roth Capital)
Hi, Pete. Hi, Adam. I appreciate on Neutron you’re trying to hold the line on a premium pricing here, Adam, but how would you think about how you temper forward bookings? How far are you willing to go in terms of units booked if you were able to get that price?
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
It’s a tricky question, right? I mean, you kind of know the deal you want when it’s put in front of you. And I think that a deal hasn’t been put in front of us that was enough to take that much capacity off of our roadmap. So I think we’re testing where the elasticity of the market is right now. And I think it’s changed a lot in the last six months, for obvious reasons. It could continue to change more in the next six months. So I think we’re just trying to be judicious and keep some dry powder so that we can continue to drive those ASP increases if the market conditions continue to trend as they are.
Suji DaSilva (Analyst at Roth Capital)
Yeah, it is an unusual problem to have that much demand. My other question really is, since Neutron’s trending longer term toward half being used for in-house, Pete, how should I think about the spacecraft manufacturing footprint you have? I kind of think of it as kind of a custom shop now, but would there be a trend toward a more volume shop over time, or is it already configured the right way? Just curious how that would—
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, no, it’s—Well, I mean, look, a tremendous number of the business units within Space Systems are volume shop. I mean, we’re the largest space-grade solar manufacturer in the world in that sense. So there are a lot of the component-level pieces already there. But going forward, you’ve seen, obviously, our flat light and also our U.S. government contract for those flat alights as a vendor B for the Starshield program. So, yeah, we see definitely in our future high-volume satellite manufacturing, hence the reasons why we developed the components at high volume and also that flat alight platform.
Suji DaSilva (Analyst at Roth Capital)
Helpful color, Pete. Thanks.
OPERATOR
Our next question comes from Ryan Koontz with Needham.
Ryan Koontz (Analyst at Needham)
Great, thanks for the question. Maybe it’s a quick one here on the great book that you had in the quarter, specifically around Neutron and the timing uncertainty. I mean, how should we think about kind of the contract terms and the Neutron uncertainty in terms of customers’ ability to cancel, find new vendors? I mean, what’s the general framework investors should think about there relative to Neutron bookings right now, given the uncertainty? Thank you.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Yeah, no, great question, Ryan. I mean, none of these contracts are janky contracts where they’ve got silly things in them. Obviously, our customers do a lot of due diligence with us. We have long relationships with them, and we’re very transparent in where we’re at. I think all of the early customers of Neutron know that we’re bringing a vehicle to market, and we’re developing a new one, and we’re moving as quickly as we can. So we will, if there is any change, of course keep them well aware of anything.
But that’s kind of the deal. And even with that, our customers obviously have a lot of faith in us and believe that we are the best option for their future launch needs.
Adam C Spice (Chief Financial Officer)
And Ryan, I would say, as you know, there’s been a bunch of shenanigans in the past in this industry about people putting forward their backlog as true backlog when it’s really options—there’s no deposits. That’s not the case here. These are, if you could expect them to look a lot like, if not exactly like, our standard LSA that we’ve experienced with Electron, where people put down real deposits. They’re not options. There’s cancellation fees and all kinds of—We’ve always put a lot of focus on making sure that we have very, very solid backlog and that we don’t fall into the trap that maybe some other folks have.
So I think we feel very good about the state of the backlog. That’s great. Appreciate the color there.
OPERATOR
That concludes today’s question and answer session. I’d like to turn the call back to Sir Peter Beck for closing remarks.
Peter Beck (President and CEO)
Great. And thanks very much for joining the call and the great questions. And we’re very pleased with the quarter and we look forward to the next one. So thanks very much.
OPERATOR
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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