President Donald Trump is in a bind. The war he started on February 28 is going badly, and this week it cost Republicans their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. He has several options for ending the war, and none of them is good.
Option #1: Launch Fresh Strikes on Iran and Hope for Capitulation
War advocates are recommending that Trump should launch new strikes against key Iranian targets. In the past, he has warned that he could target key infrastructure like bridges and power plants.
The challenge, however, is that Iran has warned that it will retaliate across the region. Its targets include similar infrastructure, together with the internet cables passing through the Strait and data centers.
Most notably, some Gulf countries are already highly vulnerable. Saudi Arabia is facing substantial attacks from Houthis, who have requested $51 billion to halt the attacks.
The other risk is that the US is running out of critical ammunition. Also, if the escalation continues, a new Democratic Congress can block further funding of the war efforts.
Option #2: Launch Strikes on the Pickaxe Mountain
Trump has also talked about bombing the Pickaxe Mountain, where it is believed that Iran is working on its nuclear program. The challenge, however, is that the US does not have bombs capable of destroying the mountain. Tucker Carlson, a former Trump ally, has suggested that the only way would be to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
Iran has warned that it will respond to such attacks by targeting key nuclear installations in the region, including in Israel’s Dimona.
Option #3: Intensify Negotiations
Some Trump officials, like Steve Witkoff and JD Vance, have advocated negotiations with Iranians. Iran, however, has maintained that it will only talk if the US implements its seven-point program.
Most notably, Iranians know that Trump is under pressure to end the war before the next Congress is sworn in. As such, they may demand more concessions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start new nuclear talks.
Option #3: Status Quo
Trump may also decide to maintain the status quo of economic sanctions and the blockade. The goal is to harm the Iranian government and public, and cause a regime change.
The risk, however, is that gasoline and diesel prices will remain elevated, which will drag his approval rating lower. Trump’s legacy will be associated with the Iran war just as George Bush is linked to the Iraq war.
Also, there is a risk that Iran may restart the war since there is no ceasefire between the two countries. Most notably, the blockade is costing billions of dollars a month, which American taxpayers are paying.
Option #4: Capture Kharg Island
Trump may also decide to capture Kharg Island, where Iran processes most of its oil. Such a move would aim to pressure the Iranian regime by cutting off its cash flow. The risk, however, is that it would require a ground invasion and could cost hundreds or even thousands of lives.
It would also not have an impact, since the blockade has already impacted Iran’s oil exports.
Option #5: Pursue Regime Change in Iran
Trump may also decide to pursue regime change in Iran by funding and arming opposition parties. Such a move would bring a new government that is friendly to the US and the Israeli government.
Many analysts believe that it is not possible to execute a regime change in Iran without a ground invasion.
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