Prediction Markets See 72% Chance of Democratic Senate With Two Days To Go

by | Nov 1, 2026 | General

As of noon ET on Sunday, both Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats a 72% chance of winning control of the Senate and a 94% chance of taking control of the House by winning about 235 seats. While that is unchanged since Saturday, there has been some movement in prediction markets over the past day.

Key Senate Races Favor Democrats in Polls and Prediction Markets

Prediction market participants see a 53-47 Democratic majority in the upper chamber. Here’s what the predictions and the polls are showing in key races.

  • Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in polling averages 50.2% to 48.4%. Kalshi gives Peltola a 70.3% chance of victory, while Polymarket gives Peltola a 72.8% chance, both shifting toward Peltola over the past 24 hours.
  • Florida: Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is at 49.5% and Angie Nixon (D) 43.6% in polls. Kalshi has Moody at 88.1% and Polymarket has her at 90.5%, with no change since Saturday.
  • Iowa: Josh Turek (D) is at 46.1% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 45.7%. But the prediction markets continue to give Hinson an edge. Kalshi has her at 56.0%, Polymarket at 58.5%, shifting further toward Hinson.
  • Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) leads Sen. Roger Marshall (R) 48.8% to 45.5%. Kalshi gives Hamilton a slight edge of 50.5%. Polymarket has Hamilton at 51.5%, with no change.
  • Maine: Troy Jackson (D) leads Sen. Susan Collins (R) 49.6% to 45.9%. Kalshi has Jackson at 68.3%, Polymarket at 67.5%. Kalshi has moved slightly toward Jackson since Saturday, while Polymarket moved slightly toward Collins.
  • Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads Mike Rogers (R) 49.3% to 44.6%. Kalshi has El-Sayed at 77.0%, Polymarket at 80.7%, both moving toward El-Sayed.
  • Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan (D) leads Michele Tafoya (R) 49.6% to 42.0%. Kalshi has Flanagan at 90.5%, Polymarket at 92.5%, moving toward Flanagan.
  • Mississippi: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) leads Scott Colom (D) 44.6% to 40.4%. Kalshi has Hyde-Smith at 89.0%, Polymarket at 88.5%, moving toward Hyde-Smith.
  • Nebraska: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) leads independent Dan Osborn, who has Democratic backing, 47.2% to 45.5%. Kalshi has Ricketts at 75.0%, Polymarket at 74.5%, moving toward Ricketts.
  • Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Sen. Jon Husted (R) 48.2% to 45.4%. Kalshi has Brown at 71.3%, Polymarket 73.5%, a slight move toward Brown.
  • South Carolina: Sen. Darline Graham (R) leads Annie Andrews (D) 46.0% to 45.6%. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have Graham at 72.0%, no change.
  • Texas: James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) 49.2% to 45.8%. Kalshi has Talarico at 68.6%, Polymarket 70.5%, moving toward Paxton.