Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) current Q4 selloff could resolve quickly, analyst Benjamin Cowen says, pointing to historical patterns where similar drops ended within days or weeks.
Why Cowen Sees Two Possible Paths From Here
Cowen said on his YouTube update on Friday that Bitcoin could play out one of two ways from here:
- A sharp, fast drop: similar to the roughly 40% single-day decline in 2015 or the 24% two-day crash tied to FTX’s collapse in 2022
- A bounce first, then a later drop: off its bull market support band, with a final drop landing after the midterms
Bitcoin’s prior cycle lows in 2014, 2018 and 2022 all came after midterm elections, he noted, which is part of why he thinks a similar pattern could play out again.
He also pointed to a three-low structure he’s been tracking across markets all year: a Q1 low, a summer low, and now a developing Q4 low.
That same pattern shows up in gold, silver, South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, not just Bitcoin.
Right now Bitcoin sits on day 389 of its cycle, tracking closely with the 2014-2015 cycle, which bottomed on day 406.
Why Cowen Calls This an ‘Apathetic Top’ Market
Cowen argued Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) recent cycle peak lacked the euphoric retail buying that defined 2017 and 2021, meaning there isn’t the same wave of trapped late buyers creating sustained selling pressure now.
He said these quieter tops tend to produce shallower bear markets, but they also leave prices more prone to fake-outs in either direction, since the market never fully works through the kind of time-based capitulation that usually marks a clean bottom.
He also flagged the upcoming Anthropic IPO, expected around mid-November, as a possible repeat of what happened before SpaceX’s IPO, when Bitcoin pulled back in the weeks leading into that listing before rebounding afterward.
Why Cowen Still Calls This the Bottoming Window
Cowen said Bitcoin’s return profile, measured from each halving to the next, puts the token squarely in the stretch where prior cycles have historically bottomed.
“This is the bottoming window,” he said, pointing to the pattern where Bitcoin tends to find its lows before building toward the next bull run.
Despite the recent pullback, its year-to-date performance still beats the average of past midterm years.
He’s siding with the bearish seasonal and macro signals over bullish technicals like RSI and MACD for now, though he stopped short of calling for panic selling.
His advice: use the rest of the year to tighten up portfolio positioning rather than chase moves in either direction.
Image: Shutterstock
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