Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is stalling for the same reason it did before the SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) IPO, analyst Benjamin Cowen says, pointing to capital rotating out of crypto ahead of Anthropic’s listing.
Why Bitcoin Looks Like It’s Repeating the SpaceX Playbook
Cowen said on the NFA Live podcast that Bitcoin’s current price action looks “almost the exact same” as its drawdown in the 30 days before SpaceX’s IPO, based on a normalized return chart comparing both periods.
He expects Anthropic’s IPO to land the week of November 16 to 20, with investors possibly holding capital back now to deploy into that listing.
He pointed to the S&P 500’s (NYSE:SPY) roughly 5% drop ahead of the SpaceX IPO as a similar precedent.
Cowen said he expects long-term Treasury yields to spike into the midterms before dropping shortly afterward, drawing a direct parallel to 2018, when the Fed paused rate hikes around that year’s midterms before raising rates again in December despite a falling stock market.
He noted the Fed’s December 2018 projections pointed to two rate hikes in 2019 that never materialized, and said the market currently prices in two hikes for 2027 that could similarly get priced out if growth concerns take over from inflation concerns.
Why AI-Driven Bank Hacks Are an Underpriced Risk
Panelist Rob pointed to a wave of AI-assisted bank hacks hitting seven countries at once:
- Latin America: a gang used Claude, Grok and Kimi to steal banking credentials
- Japan: hackers breached GMO’s currency trading service and demanded $50 million in crypto
He called the scale of these attacks unprecedented compared to anything seen before.
Cowen flagged a more technical risk: recent OpenAI research disproving the exponential time hypothesis, a mathematical assumption underlying much of modern cryptography.
He said if similar research eventually challenges the broader P versus NP problem, it could theoretically threaten the computational difficulty that blockchain security relies on, though he stressed that outcome remains purely speculative for now.
Why the Panel Expects Midterm Volatility to Fade by 2027
Cowen expects the S&P 500 to stay rangebound until the midterms, followed by a potential final drop before markets rebound heading into 2027.
Rob cited Polymarket data showing a 68% implied probability that Democrats retake the Senate, noting prediction markets have recently missed high-confidence outcomes in Brazil, Serbia and Israel.
Both analysts said continued uncertainty around the Iran conflict and upcoming AI-sector IPOs will likely keep volatility elevated through the rest of the fourth quarter.
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