Prominent macro analyst Lyn Alden says Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) bottom is likely already in, arguing the fast money that would sell has already left the market.
Why Alden Thinks the Bottom Is Already in
Alden told the Milk Road Crypto podcast Tuesday that bear markets typically end once sellers run out of reasons to sell, leaving mostly strong holders behind.
She doesn’t expect an immediate rally, since the market still needs a catalyst for fresh buying, but called the risk-reward profile attractive for anyone with a multi-year view.
She flagged AI-driven hacking as a bigger near-term risk than quantum computing, since breaking cryptography through a novel mathematical solution could happen faster and cheaper than building a working quantum computer.
Neither risk has crossed a line that worries her enough to change position sizing, she said.
Why Alden Sees Capital Rotating Out of AI Stocks
Alden sees signs the AI trade is getting exhausted, though she stopped short of calling it a top. She pointed to the semiconductor sector’s market cap jumping from roughly $2 trillion to near $20 trillion in a few years, arguing that scale makes further multiples harder to repeat.
“It doesn’t have to be that AI rolls over,” she said. “It just has to stop being the fastest horse.”
Capital in AI could start looking elsewhere once investors stop expecting outsized returns, she added, and Bitcoin trading near the low end of its valuation range makes it an easier asset to triple than a mega-cap chip stock.
Why Alden Calls the Oil Shock the Biggest Macro Risk Right Now
Alden called the oil and refinery crisis the single biggest macro variable to watch, bigger than concerns around private credit blowing up.
Refinery damage from conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, combined with how long new refineries take to build, has created unusually high crack spreads even though crude prices haven’t spiked as sharply as expected.
She’s watching Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns and any escalation in the underlying conflicts as key signals, noting the economy generally doesn’t break until oil climbs well above $150 a barrel.
Why Alden Launched a Different Kind of Bitcoin Company
Alden also discussed Orange Juice, a company she co-founded that buys cash-flowing businesses and backs them with a Bitcoin treasury, distinguishing it from pure-play Bitcoin treasury firms.
Businesses with real cash flow aren’t forced to sell Bitcoin during downturns the way debt-heavy treasury companies are, she said, letting the firm buy more Bitcoin when it’s cheap and more businesses when deals look attractive.
Asked whether 2027 will be a bull market year for Bitcoin, Alden said her bias leans toward higher prices, though she prefers multi-year forecasts over single-year calls.
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