Cryptocurrency bettors currently see little risk of an imminent AI crash in the U.S., even as warning signs emerge from China.
Navigating the AI Boom
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices in only a 9% chance that the AI industry experiences a downturn by year-end, and a slightly higher 23% by June 30, 2027. Over $3 million has been wagered on the outcome as of this writing.
For the resolution to occur, several conditions must be met: NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) must decline 50% from its all-time highs, OpenAI and Anthropic must declare bankruptcy, iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) must fall 40% from its peak, and more.
Lessons From China?
Odds are shifting amid China’s brutal AI stock selloff that has erased hundreds of billions in market value. Market commentator Bull Theory declared that “the first AI bubble has burst,” adding that the U.S. is “flashing the same warning signs.”
A recent report, published by the Open Markets Institute and Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, warned that AI-related spending is outpacing revenue from AI products and services, pushing companies to borrow more to finance their investments.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also sounded the alarm, saying that soaring AI investments, growing corporate debt and inadequate regulatory oversight could expose the U.S. economy to a financial crisis reminiscent of the 2008 market crash.
Notably, Anthropic filed for an IPO at a valuation that is estimated to reach $2 trillion, despite losing $80.7 billion in the first half of the year.
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