Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) investors spent months treating the company’s cancer vaccine as a potential cure. Last week, leaked trial data delivered a reality check.
The stock plunged roughly 26% intraday on Oct. 22 and closed down about 18% after detailed Phase 3 results surfaced two days before their scheduled presentation. A medical publication called Oncology Central apparently posted the embargoed figures early, and screenshots spread quickly on X.
The trial itself succeeded. Expectations were the problem.
- MRNA stock is sinking. See the chart and price action here.
What the Data Showed
Moderna and partner Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK) are developing a personalized treatment built around each patient’s tumor. Scientists sequence the tumor, identify mutations unique to that cancer and manufacture an mRNA vaccine designed to teach the immune system to attack those cells. Patients receive the shot after surgery alongside Keytruda, Merck’s established immunotherapy.
Moderna has pitched the concept since 2013. In August, the companies said the 1,137-patient Phase 3 trial had met its goals but held back efficacy numbers. Moderna shares more than doubled on the news, adding about $30 billion to its market value.
CEO Stéphane Bancel told CNBC the result marked a major moment for both medicine and patients. The leaked figures showed a 42% reduction in the relative risk of recurrence or death compared with Keytruda alone. An earlier, smaller study had produced a 49% reduction.
For patients, the result still represents a meaningful advance. For traders who had priced in something closer to a miracle, the gap mattered. The data also suggested the biggest benefit arrived after six months, raising questions about how well the treatment holds up against aggressive, fast-growing cancers.
According to Reuters, UBS analyst Michael Yee called the recurrence-free survival findings solid and described the selloff as an expected sell-the-news reaction following the stock’s huge run and lofty expectations.
The Influencer Trade
The strangest subplot belongs to Shane Stoffer, a fitness and gambling influencer known online as Togi. By his own account, Stoffer flipped his entire Moderna position from bullish to bearish just hours before the leak hit.
Stoffer said he began buying Moderna call options on Oct. 4 while trying to speed up a public challenge to grow his account to $3 million. He noticed widespread bearish chatter about the stock online and decided to bet the other way.
The same night, he said, he dreamed Moderna cured cancer and the stock hit $275, a move that would have lifted his portfolio to $11 million. He treated the dream as a sign from God and kept buying, eventually committing $250,000.
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Over the next two weeks, the stock climbed about 25%. Stoffer grew worried the trial hype was already priced in and planned to switch from calls to puts at the close on Friday, Oct. 23, one day before the scheduled release.
A second dream, in which Moderna surged 22%, briefly convinced him to stick with the plan. He woke to find the stock falling and his position down nearly $200,000. Fearing a selloff would drain his capital before Friday, he sold at a loss and moved roughly $500,000 into put options.
Shortly afterward, the results leaked. Moderna cratered.
Stoffer called the outcome a giant stroke of luck, writing that the more typical result for traders would have been a solid thesis wrecked by bad timing.
“And the rest, is some giga stroke of luck history, the news broke early somehow????,” he wrote.
He credited his morning panic with pushing him off his original game plan. His post ended with a disclaimer saying he was only learning and gambling, not offering financial advice.
What’s Next
With the numbers now public, investor attention shifts to what comes next for the treatment. Moderna and Merck said overall survival data remain immature, though early trends look favorable.
In August, Merck said it expected to begin discussions with regulators within months, and Moderna President Stephen Hoge told Reuters that patients could gain access as soon as next year if the shot wins approval.
The financial stakes are large. Barclays analysts have projected about $3 billion in annual melanoma sales by 2035, while analysts at JPMorgan called the launch key to Moderna’s return to profitability, Reuters reported.
Melanoma is only the first test. Moderna and Merck hope the personalized approach can eventually work across many cancer types, and future trial results will show whether the stock’s huge run reflects a lasting platform or a single success.
MRNA Stock Price Activity: Moderna shares are trading lower by 7.05% at $186.00 during premarket trading on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo: Shutterstock
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