Google’s AI Dominance Has Prediction Markets Betting Big — But Anthropic Could Flip the Script

by | Oct 22, 2026 | General

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL)-owned Google seems to be winning the AI race now, but prediction markets are betting Anthropic will pull ahead by year-end.

Gemini Leads Claude…For Now

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices in a 81% chance that Google owns the best AI model by the end of October, up from just 7.8% a month ago.

Anthropic remained a distant second with 18% odds, while OpenAI polled less than 1%.

Resolution will be based on the company that owns the model with the highest ranking on Arena.ai, a platform created that evaluates and ranks large language models and AI agents.

As of this writing, Google’s Gemini leads the rankings, with Claude in second place. The Polymarket contract specifically tracks Arena.ai’s Text Arena | Overall leaderboard, where Google’s Gemini has recently held the top spot.

A Polymarket chart shows Google leading with 80.8% in AI model predictions, followed by Anthropic at 18%.
Source: Polymarket

That said, the picture could look very different by the end of 2026. Bettors see Anthropic overtaking Google by Dec. 31, getting 49% odds in favor compared to 42% for Google.


Read Also:

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt Says AI Could Eliminate 20% of Jobs at Large Companies

Battle for AI Crown

The odds hold significance as Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Google is giving up potential Cloud revenue to prioritize AI research.

Alphabet expects to spend between $195 billion and $205 billion on capital expenditures this year, much of it driven by its expanding AI infrastructure.

The company will report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28 after the market close. Analysts estimate earnings per share of $2.89 along with revenue of $116.87 billion.

Anthropic, meanwhile, has recorded a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026 as revenue surged and spending on computing infrastructure climbed.

Price Action: Alphabet Class A shares are down 1.50% in pre-market trading, according to Benzinga Pro. The stock closed 1.62% lower at $334.76 during Wednesday’s regular trading session.

GOOGL shows a stronger long-term price trend but has underperformed in the short and medium term, according to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings.


See More:

Top Value Stocks

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock