Alcoa (NYSE:AA) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.
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Summary
Alcoa Corporation reported strong Q3 2026 performance with revenue of $3.7 billion despite lower metal prices, and net income of $483 million, up from $407 million in the prior quarter.
The company completed a significant performance recovery at the Pinjarra refinery and increased aluminum production, setting six-year-to-date production records.
Alcoa reached a definitive agreement to sell a portion of the Massena East site, anticipating cash proceeds of up to $315 million, with an initial payment expected within six months.
The Ali Group acquisition is progressing well, with completed $2.6 billion debt financing and expected closing in the first half of 2027, after securing necessary regulatory approvals.
For Q4 2026, Alcoa anticipates strong operational performance with higher production and shipments, despite some expected higher input costs and planned maintenance.
Management emphasized ongoing efforts to improve safety following a fatality at the Alumar smelter, reinforcing their commitment to safety and operational excellence.
Alcoa’s strategic priorities include operational excellence, value-creating growth, and disciplined capital allocation, focusing on asset monetization and post-acquisition delevering.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Good afternoon and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation third quarter 2026 earnings presentation and conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two.
Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Louis Langloua, Senior Vice President of Treasury and Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Louis Langloua, Senior Vice President of Treasury and Capital Markets
Thank you and good day, everyone. I’m joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer, and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly. As a reminder, today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today’s presentation and in our SEC filings.
In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation. We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.
Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website. Now I’d like to turn over the call to Bill.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Louis, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Before discussing our results, I want to address the tragic fatality that occurred on September 16th at our Alumar smelter in Brazil. The loss of one of our colleagues has deeply affected all of us at Alcoa and our thoughts remain with his family, friends, and co-workers. We are a company grounded in our values: act with integrity, operate with excellence, care for people, and lead with courage.
Safety is fundamental to our values and it guides how we run our business. There is no production target, financial result, or business objective that is more important than ensuring every employee and contractor returns home safely every day. Over many years, we have strengthened our safety systems and dedicated significant resources to improving safety performance. Those efforts have resulted in meaningful progress in many areas of our business, but when we lose a colleague, progress is not enough.
I am personally committed to ensuring we learn from this event and take the actions necessary to strengthen our safety culture, reduce risk across our operations, and hold ourselves accountable to the highest safety standards. This tragedy reinforces that safety requires relentless focus, constant vigilance, and an unwavering commitment from every one of us every day. With that commitment firmly in mind, I’ll now turn to our third quarter results.
We continued to build operational momentum and delivered strong third quarter performance. We achieved six year-to-date production records, increased aluminum production by approximately 15,000 metric tons sequentially, completed the Alumar smelter restart, and delivered a significant performance recovery at the Pinjarra refinery. Together, these results demonstrate improving stability and disciplined execution across the portfolio. We reached a definitive agreement for the sale of a portion of the Massena East site with potential cash proceeds of up to $315 million.
We expect to receive the first $50 million to $65 million at closing, which is anticipated within six months, subject to customary permitting, regulatory approvals, key development, and closing conditions. We expect to receive the remaining cash consideration before the end of the decade. Although the agreement provides up to seven years for commissioning, this is the first transaction supporting our target to generate $500 million to $1 billion from asset monetization by 2030.
The Ali Group acquisition continues to advance. The asset’s strong first half 2026 performance reinforces our confidence in the strategic and financial rationale for the transaction. S32 shareholders approved the transaction, bringing us another step closer to our expected closing in the first half of 2027. Let me now provide an update on our progress toward transaction closing. Since announcing the Ali Group acquisition on June 30, we have made meaningful progress towards closing in September.
We completed the $2.6 billion debt financing and canceled the bridge facility. Completing the financing early reduced execution risk and provides certainty around funding the cash consideration. We estimate that the locked box value was more than $300 million at the end of the quarter. Based on publicly available information, including production guidance provided by S32, the regulatory approval process is progressing well across the relevant jurisdictions.
Earlier this month I met with President Ramaphosa and other key stakeholders in South Africa. Our engagement with stakeholders has been positive and we remain confident in securing the required approvals to meet our expected first half of 2027 closing timeline. Our transition and integration teams are actively preparing for ownership of the assets. This work spans the organization and is focused on maintaining operational continuity, positioning us to capture the value of the combined portfolio, and ensuring we are ready to execute following closing and begin delivering synergies and broader benefits of the transaction.
Until then, the businesses will continue to operate independently. Now I’ll turn it over to Molly to review the financial results.
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Bill. Third quarter revenue was $3.7 billion, with the sequential change primarily reflecting lower metal prices. In the alumina segment, third-party revenue increased by 7% to $680 million, resulting from higher realized alumina prices and higher alumina shipping volumes. In the aluminum segment, third-party revenue was $3 billion, primarily reflecting lower metal prices and normalized shipment levels following the second quarter’s inventory repositioning, partially offset by higher value-add product premiums.
Third quarter net income attributable to Alcoa was $483 million versus the prior quarter of $407 million, with earnings per common share increasing to $1.81 per share. On an adjusted basis, net income attributable to Alcoa remained strong at $485 million compared with $562 million in the second quarter. Let’s discuss the factors affecting adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $789 million, as strong operational performance and higher alumina prices partially offset lower metal prices.
The alumina segment adjusted EBITDA increased $95 million on higher realized alumina prices and improved operational performance at Pinjarra. As we regained stability in the third quarter, the aluminum segment continued to deliver productivity gains, including higher molten production, improved stability, and disciplined cost performance. These benefits were more than offset by the impact of lower metal prices, lower shipments, and higher carbon costs, resulting in segment adjusted EBITDA of $862 million.
Moving to cash flow activities for the third quarter of 2026, we ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $4.4 billion, which includes $2.6 billion of cash from the bond issue completed in September. Together with cash on hand, the net proceeds from the bond issue will be used to fund the $3.1 billion cash consideration for the Ali Group acquisition at closing. Securing the financing now avoids access and pricing risks in a volatile bond market.
The quantum issue also reflects the strength of our balance sheet and cash position resulting from consecutive quarters of robust free cash flow generation. In the third quarter, cash from operations was $643 million and free cash flow was $472 million, supported by strong EBITDA in the aluminum segment where the company was able to deliver metal prices to the bottom line. Turning to our key financial metrics for the third quarter and year to date, 2026 return on equity through the first nine months of 2026 was 25.3%.
Year to date, we have returned $80 million in cash to shareholders through our regular quarterly dividend. The company generated free cash flow of approximately $600 million in the first nine months of the year. As we look toward closing the Ali Group acquisition, our strengthened balance sheet, secured financing, and substantial cash position provide ample capacity to fund the transaction. This is the result of disciplined capital allocation, strong cash generation, and consistent operating performance.
Moving on to the outlook for the full year outlook shown here, we have made only minor adjustments for transformation expenses, depreciation, interest expense, and capital expenditures. For the fourth quarter, we continue to expect strong operating performance across both segments, continuing the momentum from the third quarter. We are expecting higher production and shipments in both segments as the improved refining system stability is maintained and the smelting portfolio continues to deliver productivity through incremental output and cost discipline.
While we expect some higher direct input costs from elevated market prices and planned maintenance to support continued operational stability, the underlying performance remains very strong headed into the final quarter of the year. Please refer to the business considerations on Slide 34 of this presentation for additional details on the fourth quarter outlook. Now I’ll turn it back to Bill.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Molly. In alumina, the market tightened outside China during the quarter, with the API increasing sequentially to approximately $370 per metric ton. We expect further tightening in the fourth quarter and into 2027, driven by announced curtailments and project delays, and uncertainty in Indonesia around new supply additions. At the same time, recovering aluminum production in the Middle East and continued smelter ramp-ups in Indonesia should support additional alumina demand.
While the timing of some capacity coming online remains uncertain, the overall market condition is constructive. China remains well supplied from within the region as new refinery capacity has increased production and inventories. This continues to create a clear divergence between softer market conditions in China and tightening fundamentals outside China. Bauxite prices also increased sequentially with CIF China pricing reaching approximately $73 per dry metric ton.
The increase was driven primarily by higher freight costs. Our focus remains on operating our refinery safely and reliably, sustaining the recent performance improvement at Pinjarra, and maintaining disciplined cost management. Moving on to aluminum, aluminum prices moderated from recent highs but remain supported by constructive market fundamentals. On the supply side, production is gradually recovering as Middle East smelters restart and Indonesian capacity ramps up.
The timing of a full recovery to pre-conflict production levels in the Middle East remains uncertain. Global aluminum inventories remain historically low at approximately 42 days of consumption, leaving the market with limited capacity to absorb further supply disruptions or stronger than expected demand. The Midwest, Rotterdam and Japan regional premiums have moderated from elevated levels but remain supported by low inventories and regional deficits.
This tightness is particularly relevant in North America and Europe, both of which remain structurally short of metal. For Alcoa, our regional presence, reliable supply and differentiated product portfolio are important elements of our commercial value proposition. Our order book remains solid with significantly less volume available for sale than at this point last year. Most products are sold out or tightly committed. Packaging and electrical markets continue to lead demand.
Transportation remains resilient and construction, particularly in Europe, remains the softest end market. Customer sentiment is cautious but constructive with continued interest in secure supply and long-term agreements. Before we wrap up, I’d like to return to the three priorities we set at Investor Day nearly a year ago. First, Operational Excellence. As I stated at the top of our call, safety remains our top priority and the foundation of operational excellence.
We are strengthening critical risk controls, leadership behaviors and accountability. We are delivering greater stability across the portfolio, setting production records and improving productivity. We have now completed the restarts of both the San Ciprián and Alumar smelters. While the Western Australia EPA’s review of our mine plan continues to advance, we are preparing our teams to execute the upcoming mine moves. The mining approvals are taking longer than expected.
Several steps remain, including the appeals process and final ministerial decisions, and we now expect the process to extend into 2027. Our confidence in ultimately securing the approvals has not changed. We have incorporated an additional six months of mining in current areas into our plans and approvals by mid-2027 are not expected to further materially affect supply, quality or cost. We also have contingency plans available if needed. Second, Value Creating Growth.
At Investor Day we were clear that we would pursue growth only where we see a compelling path to long-term shareholder value. The Alley Group acquisition reflects that discipline and we will apply the same standard to any future opportunities. We will not pursue growth for growth’s sake. Third, Disciplined Capital Allocation. We ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet supported by robust year-to-date free cash flow. We structured the ALI Group considerations such that pro forma leverage approximates a manageable 1.5 times.
Following closing of the acquisition, delevering will be our priority. We expect to use various sources of cash such as free cash flow generation, locked box cash from the transaction, proceeds from additional transformation asset sales and the monetization of our modern shares to reduce debt over time. Given the stronger through-cycle cash flow generation of the combined portfolio, we will update our adjusted net debt target at the transaction. Closing the Massena East agreement also represents meaningful progress against our asset monetization strategy.
These actions demonstrate that we are executing the strategy we presented at Investor Day and strengthening Alcoa for long-term value creation. To wrap up, we are proud of what we accomplished in the third quarter, excited about the opportunities ahead and confident in our ability to deliver value for our shareholders. With that, operator, please begin the Q and A session.
OPERATOR
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. When called upon, please limit yourself to two questions. And our first question comes from Carlos d’ Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos d’Alba, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Yeah, thank you very much. Good afternoon, Bill and Molly. So the first question that I have is on the guidance. So maybe flat alumina, it’s a little bit surprising to us given what we believe has been higher spot prices in recent months. And I know there is some lagging effects there, but that was a little bit of a surprise to us maybe. Could you explain if there are any cost pressures that may be behind this, you know, offsetting some of the improved top line?
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
So Carlos, our guidance of flat refers just to our performance elements and not the market. If you look at our alumina segment, there are a couple puts and takes. We have some maintenance moving between regions, but that is completely covered by our improved shipment performance. So overall the performance elements are a net of nothing, so flat and consistent with the strong performance in the third quarter.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
And then just so it’s clear, Carlos, the guidance doesn’t include pricing. So you know, if prices get better during the course of the quarter—and they’re better today than they were a quarter ago—it’ll flow through, right?
Carlos d’Alba, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Right. Okay. Yeah, I got confused when I was looking at the consensus and our estimates admit what happened, but. Okay, that makes sense then. I was curious to see aluminum production higher in the third quarter but your aluminum shipments being a little bit lower. Was there any inventory build up, any delays in shipments that maybe you will catch up a little bit more in this current quarter? Any color there would be great.
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
So Carlos, remember in the second quarter we sold the inventory that we had repositioned in the first quarter. So that was about 30,000 metric tons. So that did not repeat in the third quarter. But we had a strong third quarter in terms of shipment, other than that repositioning that did not recurrent.
Carlos d’Alba, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Thank you very much.
OPERATOR
The next question will come from Tim Nataners with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Tim Nataners, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Yeah, hey, good afternoon. I think it’s appropriate to touch base about the potential carve out on aluminum prices or aluminum tariffs for Canada because that happened during the quarter and would be great to get your take on anything you know about whether or not that’s still in discussions and what that could mean for Alcoa.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Tim. Now we don’t know what discussions are going on between the US and Canada. We’ve offered support to both governments to provide data and information to help them come to a conclusion on any discussion that may be going on. What really matters is whether the US will remain short, right. And if Canada were completely carved out or if Canada had a lower tariff, we believe that still the marginal ton will come from outside of North America and therefore the Midwest premium still should remain strong.
But at this point it’s just speculation.
Tim Nataners, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Okay, fair. Thank you for that. And then I also wanted to get your take on how you get comfortable with the Indonesian ramp up that you alluded to. Some of the forecasters foresee some pretty aggressive volume increases. Does the Indonesian government seem to be aware of the risk to the aluminum price like what they saw with the nickel price in the last several years? What’s your take on the additional supply and how much could come on in Indonesia and what time frame?
And that’d be great to get also your latest thinking on China producing over its self-imposed cap on aluminum as well. Thanks.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Yeah, so a lot of, a lot of questions baked in there. When I look at the rest of this year, 2026, we’ve actually seen strength of alumina pricing due to the ramp up of the smelters and the return of some of the capacity in the Middle East. So that’s actually a positive for us. In January we’ll give you a better view of what our full year supply demand picture looks like. But to give you a little bit of a highlight, we are thinking that we are going to see probably a million and a half metric tons of smelting capacity come online in Indonesia next year.
On a 75 million metric ton market, that’s, you know, it’s a material number but we think that the market will be able to absorb it. And then you asked about the China cap. Hey, you know, the Chinese smelters, it feels as if the China cap is more of a policy tool to set a limit than a firm cap, in that they’re allowing some of the Chinese smelters to creep a little bit, but not a massive jump in capacity. So for instance, we’re seeing China capacity being—or production being—around 45.8 million metric tons in 2026.
That’s 400,000 tons over the nominal cap level. But it seems that they’re holding from a capacity side and allowing maybe a little bit of production creep. Thanks, Tim.
OPERATOR
The next question will come from Nick Giles with B. Riley, please. Go ahead.
Nick Giles, Analyst at B. Riley
Yeah, thanks, operator. Good afternoon, guys. The aluminum equities as a whole have been under significant pressure. And so, Bill, I was just curious where, you know, in terms of capital allocation, share repurchases would stand at this point. Thanks.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
So we’re going to. And Nick, thanks for the question. We’re pursuing the closure of the South32 Ali Group transaction in the first half of next year. Clearly we went out and raised debt in order to be able to pay the cash component of that. Recognize the fact that cash component at is 3.1. We only raised 2.6 because we’re going to use some of the cash from the balance sheet. We will get that deal—we anticipate getting that deal—closed in the first half and then the priority after that closure will be rapid delevering.
And clearly the cash generation that we are seeing today will allow us to delever rather quickly. We alluded to the fact that we think there’s $300 million of cash in the lockbox that will certainly go into the cash consideration. But at this point the target is delevering. So the contingencies are clearly that we are resequencing and modifying our mining activities. We’re looking at different production schedules and really going to continue to dig in the mines that we’re in. And we feel confident that will not have a negative impact, I should say a further negative impact on the bauxite supply or quality beyond the first six months. We’ll have to make some harder decisions and we’re confident that we will get those approvals within the first six months of next year.
OPERATOR
The next question will come from Katja Jankic with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Katja Jankic, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting on the contingency value as part of the acquisition, is it fair to assume that that is starting to accrue on the alumina side since the alumina price is now above the strike or how should we think about that?
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Katja, if the current, the third quarter average LME was about 3,220s. I can’t remember the exact number, but that would yield about a $13 million payment for the first period. So not substantial.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
But Katja was referencing alumina prices.
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
The alumina price. Sorry, there’s nothing due on alumina. We’ve not reached that strike at today’s level. Spot at 370 — I’m sorry, 387 — today. We’re not at the strike price yet.
Katja Jankic, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Okay. And then maybe on the asset monetization, I think in the past you said that there are two other assets that could quickly follow Massena East. Can you provide an update on that?
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
There’s two other assets that could quickly follow Massena East. Yeah, I’m just joking around, Katja. You know, we just got… We’re pleased to be able to announce the Massena East transaction. And you can see from the way it’s structured, it’s somewhat of a complex transaction. It gives us some cash up front, but it will give us cash further over the next five years as that data center first gets built and then gets increased in size. So it gives us a lot of upside.
There are two other ones that we believe that could happen quickly after that. We’ve not named those publicly. But now that we at least have an agreement — and we have to get it closed — at least we have an agreement on Massena East. We’re going to focus on those next two. So more to come.
Katja Jankic, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
Perfect. Thank you again.
OPERATOR
If you’d like to ask a question, please press star then one. The next question will come from Bill Peterson with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Bill Peterson, Analyst at JP Morgan
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe actually piggybacking on this Massena East agreement, will you know the, I guess the final amount upon the approval of the capacity, or is this something that as it grows the potential for, I guess, up to the $250 million additional? I’m just trying to get a sense of when we’ll know or when we’ll know what kind of value you get. And I guess maybe more importantly, is this going to be kind of a similar template for these future agreements or is this maybe viewed as more of a one-off?
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
Bill, I’ll start with the, on the size, we do have a, or the permitting initially the minimum will be 180 megawatts. And then we have two step ups, potentially another 300 and then another 200. So the site could be up to 635 megawatts. So depending on how the permitting and approvals go, then we will know the size. But the first payment at closing will be based on the initial permitting and will be at that minimum level initially.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
And as far as your question goes on whether this is a template, I think the answer, Bill, is a resounding no, that there is not a particular template for data center sales. What we are finding is that in order to maximize value out of each site, you have to really negotiate particular parts of the agreement on each site. And so there may be, out of one of those two that are coming up, similar structures, but we would also be pushing structures that would be more cash up front and less future, future value.
So there’s not a single template for these transactions because each site has its own complexity.
Bill Peterson, Analyst at JP Morgan
Okay, well understood, appreciate that. And then I want to kind of understand some of the cost, you know, guidance for alumina and aluminum. And I think it’s around $30 million for each. But I’m trying to get a sense for how sticky they are. And I guess, you know, one of them, in the case of aluminum, you know, try to unpack what higher, you know, the raw materials costs are. And then similarly with alumina, with, you know, presumably caustic and how sticky that may be.
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Bill, if you think back, I’ll start with caustic. You know, in the second quarter, early after the war began, we saw the caustic price shoot up. That didn’t stay though. It moderated pretty quickly. And so as I look at now caustic rolling through the P&L from those high purchase prices, we are not seeing a material sequential impact from that. On the carbon prices though, we are seeing elevation. When we guided in the third — sorry, in the second quarter for the third, we thought it would only be about a $15 million impact.
It ended up being just over 20. So carbon prices rolling through the P&L perspective, just over $20 million in the third quarter. And I have about $10 million more in carbon prices coming up further in the fourth quarter. Now, fourth quarter purchase prices are still coming up, but very slightly. So we’re not seeing the price escalation.
Bill Peterson, Analyst at JP Morgan
And I just want to — thanks for that — and I just wanted to make sure I’m following back up. I thought your comment was something to the effect that $30 million increase in each segment. That’s not the case. It’s flat in alumina and a $30 million increase in aluminum. So I just wanted to make sure that that’s clear.
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
And of that aluminum, of that 30 in aluminum, 10 is the carbon.
Bill Peterson, Analyst at JP Morgan
Okay, yeah, no, that’s fair enough. Thank you.
OPERATOR
The next question will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America
Thank you, operator. And good evening, Bill and Molly. Thank you for today’s update. If I could just follow up on the Massena East sale. One thing that wasn’t clear is after closing, are there any environmental or remediation or demolition or any sort of other legacy liabilities that sit with Alcoa or does that just pass on to the buyer?
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
No, we will keep the remediation responsibilities. We’re continuing to remediate at the site. We are selling the part of the land that has already completed all of our environmental and remediation work.
Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America
Okay, fantastic. Thank you. And then just one additional question again. Of course, quite a bit of talk about the ALI Group opportunity and what an opportunity it is when you look at the potential M&A opportunity set globally. I mean, do you continue to see other unique opportunities like ALI Group and what sort of appetite does Alcoa have for further acquisitions post the closing of ALI Group?
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
ALI Group’s a big acquisition for us. Let us get this one closed before we start talking about other opportunities. What I really want to prove to the world through this acquisition is that number one, we can grow this company and number two, we can successfully integrate an acquisition. We have a pretty large team that’s already in place that’s working toward the integration so that when we close on day one, we’re going to be ready to integrate this.
And I mentioned in my prepared remarks that I was already over in South Africa, met with the President of South Africa, President Ramaphosa, got a very good greeting introduction from him to the country and impressed on him that we’re an aluminum company, we want to own Hillside, we want to be in Hillside for the long term and we’re committed to the aluminum industry. So we’re going to focus on getting this one done first before we talk about other opportunities.
Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America
Okay, I appreciate that commentary. Thank you both very much.
OPERATOR
The next question will come from Richard Garciarena with Barclays.
Richard Garciarena, Analyst at Barclays
Great, thanks for taking my question. First question was basically when you think about the acquisition and you’ve gotten approvals from South32 shareholders, looking ahead, what are you doing right now in terms of potentially getting, preparing for the eventual integration? Can you do some pre-planning or do you have to wait for any country approvals — contracts on the procurement side — anything that you can sort of do to help accelerate the capture synergies?
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Right, so we’re really focused on two things currently between now and closing. One is gaining the required regulatory approvals and there’s about a dozen of those and we have gotten some of those and at this point we do not see any red flags associated with getting the regulatory approvals. Secondly, we have taken the last 60 days or so to stand up a significant integration management office and they are preparing to be able to run those assets from day one.
And you think about the complexity of buying assets of this size, it’s not a small undertaking. And so they’re focused on being able to sell, make, account for bauxite, alumina and aluminum. And so it’s not a small undertaking and we’re very focused on it. Molly, I know you’re very close to this also. Do you want to make any other comments?
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
I’ll just add that we do have an 18-month transition service agreement with South32, so we will have coverage past legal day one. But we’re preparing now for all that work ahead so that we can, as soon as we close, start working closely with the teams on integrating the organization, the systems, processes and leveraging all of the synergies that we have identified.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
And I should have made it clear, even pre-close, the two companies are working together to make sure that it’s a successful — in their case, disposition; in our case, acquisition.
Richard Garciarena, Analyst at Barclays
Thanks, that’s very helpful. And then maybe I can ask a question on the industry in general. You talked about the Middle East looking at ramping up smelting capacity. My question is, is there any constraints to that? Do they have adequate levels of raw materials to run those smelters at full capacity? By what they’re targeting as the first quarter of next year, do the ongoing impacts on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — how does that impact their ability to get to those levels?
Thank you.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
I don’t have a good answer for that question. You really are going to have to ask them how they plan to be able to do that. I think the one thing, if I wax philosophically just for a second, I think the world has changed when it comes to aluminum within the Strait of Hormuz. And I think it’s going to be a while before that completely gets normalized of flows in and out. And so I think it is a big impact. You see it in pricing today — even though prices are off from where they were, we’re still sitting at close to $3,000 a ton.
And so it has had a big impact and I think it will still have a big impact going forward.
OPERATOR
The next question is a follow up from Tim Nataners of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Tim Nataners, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Yeah, hey, I just wanted to follow up if I could on working capital, the big seasonal use in Q1. We really haven’t seen much release. If we see aluminum prices stay at this level, I would imagine you could see a pretty nice release. I just wondered, to the extent possible, if you could give us any color about what you might expect if these prices hold into the fourth quarter.
Molly Beerman, Chief Financial Officer
Tim, if you look on a day’s working capital basis and look back in history, we traditionally stepped down from like that 50-day level down into the 35 to 40 level. So I would expect we’ll release about 10 days at least going into the fourth quarter. Now, obviously, the quantum there will depend on the pricing at the end of the year, but that’s our expectation.
Tim Nataners, Analyst at Wells Fargo
Got it. That was all for me, thank you.
OPERATOR
The next question is a follow up from Carlos d’ Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos d’Alba, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Yeah, on the approval for the Ali Group transaction, do you require China approval? All right, thanks. And then on the Messina transaction, the step ups in capacity, is that solely based on regulatory approval or how do you make sure that it is not a decision of the data center? Maybe the economics change and they don’t want to do the step one or step two of the increased capacity.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Carlos, in my view they are very interested in putting the maximum capacity within Messina East. The economics for them work much better as the facility gets larger. So it will be based on how quickly, I guess a couple of things, how much demand there is, how much regulatory approvals that they get. So those are, those are the two real big issues and I guess how much capital they ultimately have. But my view is they want to see this as large as it possibly can be because I believe their economics get significantly better as it gets larger.
Carlos d’Alba, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
Thanks for the clarification, Bill.
OPERATOR
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for closing remarks.
Bill Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks operator and thank you all for joining our call. Molly and I look forward to sharing further progress when we speak again in January. This concludes the call. Thank you.
OPERATOR
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
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