Holiday Hiring Freeze? Employers Pull Back Hard On Seasonal Jobs Says Market Commentator

Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter said U.S. seasonal hiring is off to a weak start after employers announced the fewest September hiring plans since 2011.

In a post on X on Sunday, The Kobeissi Letter said U.S.-based employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, down 23% from 117,313 in September 2025.

US seasonal hiring is off to a weak start:

US-based employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, the weakest September total since 2011.

This marks a -23% decline from the 117,313 recorded in September 2025.

Retail led all industries last month, with 65,150… pic.twitter.com/cXUNJl1dLj

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 12, 2026

Seasonal Hiring Lags

Announced seasonal hiring totals 62,000 so far this year, compared with 100,800 announced by seasonal employers last September.

Retail led all industries last month with 65,150 announced hires, followed by Aerospace and Defense at 5,300.

“Hiring demand remains muted,” The Kobeissi Letter said.

Year-To-Date Plans

Hiring plans for 2026 total 210,612 workers, the second-lowest total for the first nine months of a year in at least 10 years, according to the post.

Retail leads with 66,557 announcements, followed by Technology at 22,361 and Aerospace and Defense at 21,841.

The Kobeissi Letter cited the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report published Oct. 2, which showed hiring plans up 3% from the 204,939 announced through September 2025. Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer, said the lack of a holiday surge “suggests a very cautious approach.”

Labor Market Backdrop

Hiring momentum had already cooled. Employers added 57,000 jobs in June, below expectations for a gain of 110,000, and full-time employment fell by 106,000 in July to 133.55 million. July job openings were little changed at 7.3 million, with hires steady at 5.1 million and layoffs at 1.7 million.

The weak seasonal figures arrive alongside lower layoff plans. Employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August, according to Challenger.

Artificial intelligence was cited for 3,961 of those cuts, about 9% of the total. Challenger said AI remains the leading reason this year at 120,136 cuts, roughly 21%.

Weekly jobless claims fell to 187,000 in July, the lowest level since 1969.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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