Cryptocurrency bookmakers have sharply pulled back odds of the U.S. announcing a diesel export ban before the year-end after President Donald Trump ruled out the possibility.
Prediction Market Trim Export Ban Odds
Betting crowd on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket now sees only an 11% chance of any such announcement in December, down from 50% a week ago.
The sharp decline comes as Trump said last week that he would not authorize an export ban after G7 nations agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks over four months.
“We were never going to do it. I don’t think we were,” Trump replied when a reporter asked if the export ban was “officially off the table.”
Will Prices Cool?
Goldman Sachs said last week that a ban could initially push diesel prices down by about 25 cents per gallon each week, but later it could push retail gasoline prices higher as refineries would be forced to cut crude oil production.
The U.S. has been grappling with high diesel prices, with the average retail price climbing to $6.199 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, surpassing previous records and roughly 69% higher over the past year.
Phillip Bruner, a professor at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business, told Benzinga that the issue lies not in production, but in the distribution system, which is proving to be cost-ineffective.
Photo: IAB Studio / Shutterstock
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