Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen warns Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) breakout above its prior trading range could be a fakeout, one that sets up the same Q4 weakness he’s called for all year.
Why Cowen Still Expects a Fourth-Quarter Low
Cowen said on his YouTube channel that Bitcoin has historically bottomed three times a year in midterm years: once in February, once in summer, and once in the fourth quarter, a pattern he pointed to in both 2018 and 2022.
He argued Bitcoin’s apathetic top this cycle resembled 2019 more than past euphoric cycles, since both saw roughly 54% drawdowns without the kind of panic selling that usually accompanies a blow-off top.
Cowen’s thesis assumed rising energy prices, yields and the dollar would eventually push Bitcoin into that Q4 low.
Instead, Bitcoin rallied well above its prior range entirely, a move Cowen admits he didn’t see coming.
Why He Thinks This Could Be a Fakeout
Cowen drew a direct parallel to what happened to the downside earlier this year. Bitcoin undercut its February low near $60,000, fell to roughly $57,000, and then quickly reversed back above the range.
He now asks whether the opposite could be true on the way up: if Bitcoin accepts back below the top of its prior range, it could just as easily fake out bulls the same way it faked out bears months earlier.
He also compared the setup to silver’s 2011 top, when the metal ranged for years before a sharp fake breakout convinced holders the bull market had returned, only for price to fall right back down.
What Gold’s Behavior Suggests About Timing
Cowen pointed to gold historically bottoming earlier than Bitcoin in past cycles, with gold’s low typically landing around the same time the 10-year Treasury yield peaks, usually in the October-to-November window.
If that pattern repeats this year, Bitcoin’s own low could still arrive later in Q4, even after its recent strength against gold.
He also flagged a technical parallel: Bitcoin’s ROI since the September rate hike is tracking closely with March 2022, when Bitcoin initially popped before fading over the following weeks, according to his historical overlay.
Cowen said he sees little room for a middle outcome from here:
- Bitcoin holds its breakout: closes back above its prior range and continues higher
- Bitcoin breaks down: falls back toward the bottom of that range, a move he says would “wreck a lot of people” who turned bullish on the recent breakout
He’s not abandoning his Q4 thesis over the higher high, pointing to 2018 and 2022 as reminders that each midterm cycle tends to throw a late curveball before the real low sets in.
Photo via Shutterstock
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