Trump’s Midterm Win and $5,000 Stimulus Checks May Trigger a 2021-Like Crypto Bull Run, Says Analyst —But Warns an Economic Crisis May Follow

Andrei Grachev, Head and co-founder of of DWF Labs, said late Saturday that a Republican win in the midterms, combined with President Donald Trump’s pledge of $5,000 stimulus checks, could spark a 2021-style cryptocurrency bull market.

2021-Like Bull Run on the Cards?

Last month, Trump proposed $5,000 “Trump dividend” checks to every American adult citizen if Republicans win the November midterms.  The proposal would cost roughly $1.2 trillion.

Grachev said that these payouts would total roughly 1.5 times the scale of COVID-19 checks issued in 2020-21. Notably, three rounds of stimulus payments—$1,200, $600, and $1,400—were distributed at the height of the pandemic.

“People will definitely spend a part of on crypto and we can see [2021]-like bull run,” Grachev projected.

He, however, warned investors to “cash out everything” after any potential rally to prepare for an approaching economic crisis.

If Trump wins midterm and give 5k$ to every adult, it would be like 150% of Covid helicopter money
People will definitely spend a part of on crypto and we can see 021-like bull run.
If it happens, we you must cash out everything and enjoy next years, bcz crisis is coming

— Andrei Grachev 🦅🟠 $FF (@ag_dwf) October 4, 2026

Fiat Expansion Against Bitcoin Scarcity

Macro Analyst Joe Consorti pointed out the math: a 2020 $1,200 COVID stimulus check bought roughly 0.18 BTC at prices around $6,700, while Trump’s proposed $5,000 check would buy only about 0.06 BTC at current prices near $85,000.

“That’s what 6 years of money printing looks like,” he added, pointing out the fiat expansion and reduced value of the dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

In 2020, a $1,200 stimulus check bought about 0.18 Bitcoin.

Trump’s proposed $5,000 stimulus check buys about 0.06 Bitcoin.

That’s what 6 years of money printing looks like. pic.twitter.com/MKzE3H8Weo

— Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) October 5, 2026

Notably, Bitcoin bull Anthony Pompliano argued last month that stimulus would boost inflation and the money supply, driving demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin, gold, and land as stores of value.

Crypto Punters Skeptical

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have a history of rallying after such announcements. Trump floated a $2,000 tariff dividend in November, sending BTC up 5%. The COVID stimulus checks had a similar impact.

The $5,000 proposal, however, depends on Republicans retaining control of Congress in November, pushing any potential payment more than a year into the future.

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices only a 6% chance that Trump officially creates the dividend before March 31, 2027.

Price Action: As of this writing, BTC is down 1.60% in the last 24 hours to $84,165, according to Benzinga Pro. 

Image via Shutterstock/ noamgalai