Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares are trending Thursday as the stock continues working through volatility following a bearish Citi downgrade earlier this week.
- Moderna stock is trading near recent highs. Where are MRNA shares going?
Moderna’s Sharp Run Hits a Bearish Citi Call
Moderna shares have had an extraordinary few weeks. The stock touched a fresh 52-week high of $208.90 on Tuesday. That capped a run of 223% since mid-August, when positive late-stage trial data for the company’s experimental cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, paired with Merck’s Keytruda, first sent shares soaring.
The sentiment turned on Wednesday when Citi analyst Geoff Meacham cut his rating on Moderna to Sell. The analyst also raised his price target, but only to $80 from $60, a figure that still sits roughly 60% under Tuesday’s closing price.
Meacham’s case rests on valuation math he thinks doesn’t hold up. He pointed out that Moderna’s market value, near $80 billion, now sits close to Regeneron’s, even though Moderna’s expected sales and profits trail well behind, CNBC reported. Running the numbers on intismeran’s main cancer programs, the analyst estimated the stock would only be worth about $100 a share even in a best-case scenario where every trial succeeds.
Getting to $200 a share, Meacham added, would require oncology sales roughly seven times larger than what his model currently assumes. Meacham summed up his view bluntly, calling the valuation “unjustifiable with a negatively skewed risk/reward profile.” Not everyone agrees with that read. LSEG data shows 15 of the 24 analysts covering Moderna still rate it a buy.
Moderna’s Business Update Adds Context to the Volatility
The stock’s swings this week came alongside separate company news. Juan Andres will rejoin Moderna as Chief Operating Officer starting Oct. 5. At the same time, Jerh Collins, who holds the Chief Technical Operations and Quality Officer role, announced plans to retire.
Moderna also grew its infectious disease vaccine portfolio to five approved products. That expansion followed FDA clearance of the company’s seasonal flu shot and European approval of a combined flu-and-COVID vaccine.
Even with today’s pullback, the stock remains near its highest point in roughly three years, a sign most of the summer’s massive rally is still intact despite this week’s turbulence.
MRNA Shares Are Falling
MRNA Price Action: Moderna shares were flat at $192.57 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $208.90, according to Benzinga Pro.
Image: Lutsenko_Oleksandr/Shutterstock.com
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