Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is seeing early signs that its premium-first iPhone strategy is gaining traction, with strong iPhone 18 Pro demand in China and longer delivery times across major markets supporting expectations for a richer product mix and potential revenue upside.
iPhone 18 Pro Starts Strong In China
Counterpoint Research said Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro series recorded 12% year-over-year growth during its first three days of sales, helping Apple capture the No. 1 position in China during Week 38 with a 33% smartphone market share.
The performance came despite China’s weekly smartphone sales declining by double digits year over year since July amid soft consumer demand and higher memory costs.
Counterpoint Senior Analyst Ivan Lam said, “The delayed launch of the base iPhone 18 may have driven some consumers to trade up to the Pro series, while price hikes of over $200 on many Chinese flagship models may have raised the price anchor, strengthening the iPhone’s relative value proposition.”
Counterpoint expects September’s new-product launches to support a sequential market recovery.
It also expects the latest generation of Chinese Android flagships to sell fewer units than their predecessors in the fourth quarter as higher memory and 2nm-chip costs push prices up.
Munster Says Premium-First Strategy Is Working
Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster also sees evidence that Apple’s decision to launch the more expensive iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max months before the base model is paying off.
Munster’s tracking across eight countries shows delivery lead times for the Pro models are 15% longer than a year ago, despite his expectation that they would be shorter.
He said the data suggests consumers may be choosing premium models rather than waiting for the base iPhone in spring 2027.
The next test comes with Apple’s foldable Duo, which begins preorders Oct. 16 and deliveries Oct. 23.
Munster Sees iPhone Revenue Estimates As Too Low
Munster cited consensus fiscal 2027 iPhone revenue estimates of $9.5 billion and said, “I think the Street is still 10% too low on iPhone revenue for FY27.”
He estimates the $2,100 Duo could capture 35% market share in its first year, with roughly one-third of Pro Max users potentially moving to the foldable.
Munster expects the Duo to represent about 8% of iPhone units next year but 14% of iPhone revenue, with higher average selling prices potentially lifting overall iPhone revenue by 10%.
Apple Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions
Apple stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $335.57. Recent analyst moves include:
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Maintains Forecast to $360.00) (Sept. 29)
- B of A Securities: Buy (Maintains Forecast to $370.00) (Sept. 23)
- Evercore ISI Group: Outperform (Raises Forecast to $380.00) (Sept. 18)
Top ETF Exposure
- Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF (NYSE:SCHG): 9.88% Weight
- Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X ETF (NYSE:TECL): 9.68% Weight
- Motley Fool 100 Index ETF (BATS:TMFC): 9.86% Weight
Significance: Because AAPL carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.
AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were down 0.06% at $329.19 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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