The crypto market structure bill is becoming a high-stakes political bet, with prediction markets and Washington insiders sending sharply different signals on its chances of passing.
Polymarket currently places the CLARITY Act’s passage odds at roughly 14%, while some Capitol Hill sources privately estimate the probability at just 3% to 5%.
One industry insider on Wednesday argued that lawmakers broadly expect the bill to fail but are reluctant to say so publicly after the crypto industry spent tens of millions of dollars and roughly 18 months lobbying for the legislation.
The speculation also comes as Democrats have yet to provide a clear answer on ethics concerns involving President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings.
If CLARITY fails, Washington may pivot away from a sweeping crypto market structure bill and pursue narrower legislation targeting specific parts of the industry, such as stablecoins, tokenization, perpetual futures and prediction markets.
The Bull Case For Passage
Venture capital firm Paradigm’s VP Affairs Alexander Grieve pushed back on declaring CLARITY effectively dead as premature.
He sees the strongest evidence against a failed-outcome narrative as coming from the banking industry.
Banks are reportedly increasing lobbying efforts and buying advertising across Washington ahead of the next legislative push. That spending would make little sense if key players already viewed the bill’s failure as certain.
Lawmakers could also use public statements to pressure White House and Senate leaders into addressing last-minute priorities.
The legislative calendar remains the clearest obstacle.
The Senate is scheduled to sit for one week starting Monday, while the House is expected to leave five days later on Friday.
That leaves lawmakers with a narrow window to resolve disagreements, secure leadership support and move the bill through both chambers.
Image: Shutterstock
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