American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) stock traded lower on Friday as volatile oil markets and reduced forward earnings guidance weighed on the carrier. The Nasdaq is up 0.85% while the S&P 500 has gained 0.34%.
Oil Market Volatility
Crude oil traded around $77 per barrel on Friday as investors weighed negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Optimism faded following reports that Iran sought to exclude U.S. and Israeli vessels while imposing transit fees. President Donald Trump said the conflict could end “pretty soon” and that discussions were progressing. However, reported attacks near Qeshm Island and Houthi militant strikes added to shipping security concerns, according to Trading Economics.
Slashed Forward Guidance
American Airlines lowered its third-quarter adjusted outlook on July 23 to a loss between 70 cents and 10 cents per stock, compared to the 12 cents earnings estimate. For full-year 2026, management cut adjusted earnings guidance to a range of a loss of 65 cents through earnings of 65 cents per stock, down from the prior forecast of a loss of 40 cents through earnings of $1.10 per stock.
Fuel Cost Pressures
In second-quarter results reported July 23, operating income fell 60.7% to $446 million as fuel expense surged 83.3% to $4.881 billion. CFO Devon May said American’s expected third-quarter fuel cost has risen by more than $700 million since early July and by nearly $1.6 billion for the remainder of 2026.
Critical Levels To Watch for AAL Stock
AAL is still in a constructive longer-term trend: it’s trading 4.4% above its 20-day SMA ($15.43) and 16%+ above both its 100-day SMA ($13.77) and 200-day SMA ($13.83). That distance from the longer moving averages suggests the bigger uptrend is intact, even if the stock is choppy day to day.
Momentum is best framed through RSI, which sits at 52.74—neutral and consistent with a stock that’s digesting gains rather than breaking into a fresh momentum leg.
Trend signals are mixed on the shorter horizon: the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA (a bearish crossover), but the golden cross in June (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) keeps the intermediate trend bias pointed higher. Traders will also remember the stock broke below support in May, which can leave overhead supply if rallies revisit prior congestion.
- Key Support: $13
- Key Resistance: $19
AAL Stock Price Activity: American Airlines Group shares were trading at $15.98 down 0.31% at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image via Shutterstock
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