U.S. stock futures are climbing heading into Monday morning following a major de-escalation in the Middle East.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning heavily bullish for the Aug. 3 opening bell. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?” betting contract currently shows an 86% chance of an “Up” open. Early trading volume for the Monday contract sits at $13,032.
Why That Number Matters
The macroeconomic landscape shifted dramatically over the weekend, relieving severe geopolitical pressures that had been weighing on the markets:
- Geopolitical Relief: President Donald Trump called off a planned “massive attack” on Iran over the weekend, announcing that negotiations with Tehran will resume Monday afternoon.
- Energy Prices Plunge: The averted escalation sent oil prices tumbling, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropping 6.06% to $79.54 per barrel. Brent crude futures also fell sharply by 5.24% to $83.32.
- Futures Rally: Equity benchmarks are pointing to a green open. S&P 500 futures have advanced 0.63%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.59%. Dow Jones futures climbed 0.49%.
- Earnings Focus: Investors are shifting attention back to tech and AI investments, with Alex Karp‘s Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) set to report on Monday after the closing bell and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) set to release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company on Tuesday following a volatile seven weeks since its IPO.
The Market Outlook
Economist Mohamed A. El-Erian notes that global equity markets are showing signs of stabilization after a period of severe tech deleveraging. The South Korean Kospi, for example, saw a three-day aggregate decline of 17% followed by a massive 18% surge on Friday. However, it was nearly 5% lower again on Monday.
El-Erian attributes the recent rise in longer-term bond yields not just to Federal Reserve communication, but to the reality of significant capital demand required to finance AI infrastructure.
Looking ahead, America’s growth momentum will rely heavily on AI spending, consumer resilience, and navigating geopolitical shocks, with all eyes turning to the upcoming monthly jobs report later this week.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The Friday, July 31 Polymarket contract successfully resolved “Up.” The contract settled for the “Up” outcome, attracting $84,543 in total trading volume as the market closed July on a high note.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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