Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 10% in July, following a cooler-than-expected consumer price inflation report on Tuesday and another cool producer price inflation print on Wednesday.
BTC Tracking 2018 Bear Market Playbook
In a podcast on July 15, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says the move remains consistent with the 2018 bear market playbook rather than the start of a new bull run.
“Bitcoin is still kind of tracking what it normally does in midterm years,” Cowen said.
He added that Bitcoin historically bottoms in late June or early July during midterm years, rebounds through July and then weakens again in late July or August before reaching its final bear market low.
Cowen pointed to Bitcoin’s historical July performance during previous midterm years:
- 2018: Nearly 40% gain in July.
- 2022: Around 20% gain.
- 2026: Already up roughly 10% this July.
From a technical perspective, Cowen said Bitcoin is now trading between two major long-term indicators, the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band.
The narrowing range suggests volatility could increase as Bitcoin approaches a decisive breakout later this year.
Cowen expects Bitcoin could continue climbing toward the bear market resistance band before the market chooses its next major direction between August and the fourth quarter.
Macro Outlook
Cowen attributed much of the inflation slowdown to easing housing costs, which carry the largest weighting in the Consumer Price Index. Inflation also moderated across food, apparel, transportation and medical care.
However, he cautioned that rising oil prices remain a key risk.
A sustained rebound in crude oil could push inflation higher again, reducing expectations for easier monetary policy and creating fresh headwinds for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Image: Shutterstock
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