President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14160 in January 2025 in an effort to end birthright citizenship, as part of the Birthright Citizenship Act. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on the matter this week.
The move from Trump has faced setbacks, including from an October federal appeals court decision, which found it inconsistent with the Constitution and blocked it.
The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals also expressed skepticism about the order, with a three-judge panel indicating that the order appeared unconstitutional.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $1.5 million has been bet on the contract “Will Trump’s birthright citizenship order come into effect?”
The prediction market is not very confident, with bettors placing a 7.4% probability on the act coming into effect “Before August 2026.”
Disclaimer: Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Trump Faces Supreme Court Setback
Trump faced yet another setback on Monday when the Supreme Court rejected his attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed’s Board of Governors.
The dispute stems from Trump’s August 2025 attempt to remove Cook.
According to the court, Trump had not followed the procedures required under federal law to remove Cook from the Fed’s board.
Trump’s Supreme Court Victory
While Trump faced a setback with regard to Cook, he also secured a victory. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that presidents have broader authority to remove members of independent federal agencies.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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