Polymarket bettors have sharply turned against SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), holding above its $135 IPO price by the end of June, a swift reversal that reflects growing anxiety after the stock lost more than 18% over the past week.
Polymarket Odds Swing Against SpaceX
Traders believe there’s only a 35% chance the stock will end the month higher than its IPO price, down from roughly 80% just a week earlier, with the break lower beginning around June 22. That means bettors now view a month-end close below SpaceX’s offer price as the more likely outcome.
The shift marks a striking turn from early June, when traders were focused on how far Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company could soar after its public debut. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and began trading on June 12, initially jumping 19% and pushing its market value past $2 trillion.
That euphoria has faded quickly. SpaceX shares surged above $225 in the first trading days but closed at $153 on Thursday, leaving the stock still above its offer price but far below its post-IPO high. The stock has dipped 18.66% in the last five days and fallen roughly 32% from its all-time high of $225.64 on June 16.
Short Sellers Pile Into Pullback
Short sellers have moved in. Reuters reported Wednesday that short sellers increased bets on further declines after the stock pulled back from its early highs, citing data from Ortex Technologies. Ortex said short interest rose to 13% of SpaceX’s free float from 8% in the prior session.
“Short interest in SpaceX is building remarkably fast for a stock that has only been public for a couple of weeks,” Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg told Reuters.
Analysts have also urged caution. SpaceX’s valuation has looked stretched relative to other megacap companies because it remains unprofitable and has generated far less revenue than similarly valued technology giants. Todd Schoenberger of Crosscheck Management warned Reuters at the debut that whether the stock remained a winner “remains to be seen.”
Investopedia reported that KeyBank initiated coverage without a price target, noting that SpaceX has major growth avenues but that much of that potential may already be reflected in the valuation.
Index Catalysts Still Await Investors
Several catalysts remain. SpaceX is expected to join the Russell 1000 after Friday’s close, with Nasdaq 100 inclusion expected July 6 and the IPO quiet period ending July 7.
Benzinga Pro data show SpaceX is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 17, when investors will get their first official look at the company’s public-market financials.
According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, SpaceX stock fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were up 0.12% to $152.81 during the after-hours trading session on Thursday.
Photo Courtesy: Samuel Boivin on Shutterstock.com
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