The S&P 500 ended marginally lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of Micron Technology Inc.’s quarterly earnings. Still, Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will rebound at Thursday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed down 0.10% at 7,358.22. However, the June 25 Polymarket contract implied a 97% probability that the index will open higher on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) surged nearly 15% in after-hours trading after reporting quarterly results that beat Wall Street expectations and forecasting current-quarter revenue well above analysts’ estimates. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) also rallied 14% after raising its long-term non-handset revenue outlook, with Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), KLA Corp (NASDAQ:KLAC) and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) gaining as well.
Investors are now awaiting May’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, for fresh clues on the path of interest rates after policymakers adopted a more hawkish tone last week.
Meanwhile, the White House requested $87.6 billion in supplemental funding related to the Iran war, a proposal that immediately drew opposition from Congressional Democrats.
The Bull Case
Micron’s blockbuster earnings have revived enthusiasm around the AI trade, sending semiconductor stocks sharply higher.
Market strategists also argue that the recent pullback in technology has broadened market leadership rather than weakened it, with strength rotating into industrials and financials. Investors will also watch the final first-quarter GDP reading, durable goods orders and jobless claims alongside the PCE report.
A hotter-than-expected PCE inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, limiting the market’s upside despite the earnings-driven rally.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.79% early Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened 7,370.88, slightly above Tuesday’s close of 7,365.46, meaning the June 24 Polymarket bet resolved “Up.” The contract attracted $33,656 in traded volume, with betting remaining volatile but maintaining an upward bias throughout the session.
Image via Shutterstock
Recent Comments