The S&P 500 tumbled on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates could rise this year, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound sharply at Thursday’s open.
The S&P 500 closed down 1.21% at 7,420.10 after its worst session in nearly a week. However, the June 18 Polymarket contract implied a 98% probability that the index will open higher on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters
Investor sentiment was rattled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged but released a more hawkish-than-expected dot plot.
The median Fed official now expects the benchmark rate to end 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March projections, suggesting at least one rate hike could be on the table. Treasury yields surged following the decision, with the two-year Treasury yield climbing above 4.2%, pressuring equity valuations.
Markets are also digesting the first policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, who declined to submit his own rate forecast, adding another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
The Bull Case
Despite Wednesday’s selloff, futures suggest investors are looking past the Fed shock and focusing on resilient economic conditions.
Stocks in Asia were mostly higher overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi both hitting fresh records.
Investors will also be watching earnings from Accenture (NYSE:ACN) and Kroger (NYSE:KR), alongside key economic releases including initial jobless claims for the week of June 13.
S&P 500 futures pointed to a rebound early Thursday, rising 0.87%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.32%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,524.50, above Tuesday’s close of 7,511.35, meaning the June 17 Polymarket bet resolved “Up.” The contract recorded approximately $54,194 in traded volume before settling.
Image via Shutterstock
Recent Comments