The S&P 500 rebounded on Thursday after snapping a nine-day winning streak a day earlier, but Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will open lower on Friday.
The S&P 500 gained 0.41% to close at 7,584.31 on Thursday, recovering part of Wednesday’s decline. The June 5 Polymarket contract implied just a 21% probability that the index will open higher on Friday.
Why That Number Matters
Friday’s jobs report could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy at a time when investors remain focused on inflation, interest rates and geopolitical risks.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 80,000 jobs in May, below the average pace of the previous two months, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.
The S&P 500 is also attempting to secure its 10th consecutive positive week, which would mark its longest weekly winning streak since 1985.
Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after President Donald Trump said he would “be okay” to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader if it helped secure a deal, as the fragile ceasefire between the two countries remains in place.
The Bull Countercase
Thursday’s session showed signs of market broadening, with investors rotating out of some technology names and into other sectors of the market.
Market participants also continue to point to robust demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers and computing capacity as a long-term tailwind for equities.
The benchmark index remains within striking distance of its record highs despite recent volatility tied to oil prices and geopolitical developments.
However, investors could become more cautious if Friday’s payrolls report comes in stronger than expected, reinforcing concerns that the Fed may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
S&P 500 futures were down 0.61% early Friday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 7,516.54, below Wednesday’s close of 7,553.68, meaning the June 4 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.” The contract recorded about $68,553 in traded volume before settling.
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