XRP Dropped 17% to 39% Every Midterm Year June: Is 2026 Any Different?

by | Jun 4, 2026 | General

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is down almost 5% on Thursday, entering a month that has delivered losses between 17% and 39% in every prior midterm election year.

June Has Never Been Kind To XRP In Midterm Years

Crypto analyst EGRAG laid out the historical pattern on X.

XRP fell 17% in June 2014, 39% in June 2018, and 32% in June 2022. 

All three years shared the same setup: price opening below the 50 EMA during macro compression phases with sentiment turning extremely bearish before structure eventually formed a bottoming zone.

“The market moves hardest when the majority expects the opposite,” EGRAG wrote, noting the current setup could become one of the biggest bear traps of the cycle if XRP reclaims the 50 EMA and the macro trendline. 

XRP ETF Flows Just Cracked For First Time Since May

XRP spot ETFs posted their first outflow of the month on June 3, bleeding $5.34 million with Bitwise alone accounting for $4.06 million of that exit. 

Total net assets slipped to $1.03 billion from a peak above $1.13 billion. Despite the single-day crack, XRP investment products still recorded $20.3 million in weekly inflows even as broader digital asset funds suffered $1.5 billion in outflows.

Meanwhile, more than 25 million XRP left exchanges in recent days, a trend that typically signals longer-term accumulation rather than immediate selling pressure. 

XRP also marked its 14th anniversary this week, commemorating the 2012 genesis event that created the network’s 100 billion token supply.

February Lows At $1.10 Are The Last Line Of Defence

XRP now sits inside the SMC demand zone that produced the February recovery. The descending trendline from January’s $2.40 peak remains fully intact overhead. 

RSI sits at 24.34, deeply oversold, while the full moving average stack confirms the death cross from November 2025 is still active.

Support holds at $1.10 to $1.15, the demand zone and February lows. A daily close below $1.10 opens a move toward $1.00 then $0.90. 

Meanwhile, a strong rejection from the demand zone combined with a break above the descending trendline targets $1.432 then $1.529.

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