American economic confidence dropped below pandemic-era lows, according to The Kobeissi Letter, citing recent survey data from Gallup. This points to a fresh warning sign for consumer-facing demand as households turn more cautious on jobs and big-ticket purchases.
Confidence Sinks Below Pandemic Levels
According to a Tuesday post on X, the Gallup Economic Confidence Index declined 11 points in April to -38, the lowest reading since November 2023. “This is now below the pandemic low of -33 points seen in April 2020,” according to the letter.
The Kobeissi Letter wrote that “the all-time high was +56 points in January 2000, while the all-time low was -72 points in October 2008.” It also says “Americans are very concerned about the economy”.
Economy Worsening, Job Sentiment Fading
The downturn in confidence appears to be driven by increasingly pessimistic views among Americans. According to the data, 73% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, the highest since May 2023, while just 23% say conditions are improving.
The latest University of Michigan survey also shows that confidence among American consumers has never been this depressed in history.
The preliminary April consumer sentiment index crashed to a record low of 47.6, an 11% monthly plunge and a sharp miss against the 52 consensus, as the Iran war’s economic fallout spread from the gas pump into households’ broader outlook on their finances, jobs and the future.
Perceptions of the labor market have also deteriorated. Only 33% of Americans say it is a good time to find a quality job, the lowest level since January 2021. That marks a sharp drop from 74% in October 2021, when post-pandemic hiring demand was surging.
These shifts suggest that confidence in job availability, once a pillar of economic optimism, may be weakening alongside broader sentiment.
Job Market Rebounds in March
The U.S. labor market snapped back in March, with 178,000 jobs added, crushing expectations of 60,000 and reversing February’s sharp decline. Wage growth came in lighter than expected, with the 0.2% monthly increase marking a step down from prior months. That combination — solid job growth with moderating wages — keeps the “soft landing” narrative intact for now.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Miha Creative / Shutterstock
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