Two things are true this morning. Intel just dragged semis into another record run, and Brent crude is still holding above $104 with Gulf output down 57% from pre-war levels.
That is the split market: AI leadership is saying risk-on, while energy and inflation are telling the Fed to stay careful. Thursday’s completed close had the S&P 500 at 7,108.40, the Nasdaq at 24,438.50, and the Dow at 49,310.32. By Friday morning, Nasdaq was green, Dow was red, and the market was asking one question: can chips outrun oil?
The Rundown
AI
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) reported Q1 revenue of $13.6B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, then guided Q2 revenue to $13.8B-$14.8B. The stock was up more than 22% Friday morning, AMD $AMD jumped double digits, and the SOX index was riding an 18-session winning streak. That’s the tell: AI demand is still strong enough to pull old-school chip names back into the spotlight.
Oil
Brent was near $104.78 and WTI was near $94.83 Friday, even after easing intraday. Goldman estimated Gulf crude output is down 14.5M barrels per day, or 57% from pre-war levels. P&G $PG just put a number on the pain, warning of a $1B after-tax fiscal 2027 profit hit from higher oil prices. A bounce is not a bottom when the margin pressure is this visible.
Macro
April consumer sentiment fell to 49.8, the lowest reading on record. Gas above $4 is no longer just a consumer story. It is a Fed story, a margin story, and a confidence story. Powell can ignore day-to-day market noise. He cannot ignore inflation expectations rising while oil is still hot.
Space
SpaceX is turning into a public-market event before it even lists. Reuters reported this week that the company refinanced debt with a $20B bridge loan before its IPO filing, while investors continue circling what could become one of the largest IPOs ever. Space is no longer just a moonshot story. Lower launch costs are becoming infrastructure, and infrastructure is where the next revenue streams get built.
The Play
The Market’s Real Fight
The strongest part of the market is not “tech” broadly. It is AI infrastructure. Intel’s guide, AMD’s move, Meta’s AWS compute deal, and the SOX streak all point to the same thing: investors are still paying for companies tied to chips, compute, data centers, and physical AI capacity.
The Tax Is Oil
That does not mean the market gets a free pass. Brent above $104 changes the math for airlines, logistics, consumer staples, industrials, and retailers. P&G’s $1B warning matters because it turns the oil shock from a chart into an income statement. That is where macro stress becomes earnings stress.
The Fed Is The Referee
The Fed decision lands April 29, the same day Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta (NASDAQ:META) report after the close. That is the entire market compressed into one day: rates, AI capex, cloud demand, margins, and whether mega-cap earnings can still carry the tape.
Smart money is watching the revision cycle. If AI earnings estimates keep moving higher while oil stabilizes below $105, the market can keep leaning into semis and infrastructure. If Brent pushes back toward $110 and mega-cap guidance sounds cautious on Apr. 29, the tell is the Nasdaq losing leadership while the 10Y yield refuses to break lower.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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