The S&P 500 surged on Wednesday, rising 1.05% to close at a record 7,137.90, as easing geopolitical fears and strong earnings lifted market sentiment.
However, the Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is turning sharply bearish heading into Thursday. The April 23 market shows just about 13% of traders betting “Up,” with the majority expecting a lower open for the benchmark index.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday’s rally pushed the S&P 500 to fresh all-time highs, extending a run driven by optimism around a ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran and a solid start to earnings season.
However, geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. Iran has signaled reluctance to engage in talks, while reports indicate seizures of container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping concerns around global energy supply elevated.
At the same time, earnings reactions are creating volatility beneath the surface. Shares of IBM (NYSE:IBM) and ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) dropped sharply after results, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reversed gains after warning of higher capital spending tied to its AI ambitions.
Investors are also watching fresh economic data, including S&P Global PMI readings due Thursday, alongside earnings from companies such as Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Blackstone (NYSE:BX), American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT).
The Bull Countercase
Despite the bearish tilt in prediction markets, equities have remained resilient.
According to FactSet data, more than 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten earnings expectations, reinforcing confidence in corporate profitability even amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Still, futures are pointing lower after the record-setting rally. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.46% in early trading, suggesting a potential pullback as investors reassess risks.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,102.91, above the prior close of 7,064.01. The April 22 Polymarket bet resolved “Up,” with traders correctly anticipating a higher open before the index climbed to fresh highs.
Image via Shutterstock
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