Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel left as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown squeezes supply lines into peak travel season, the International Energy Agency warned Thursday. President Donald Trump said some of the world’s biggest tankers are arriving empty at U.S. ports to load crude quickly.
CNBC reported earlier this month that IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called the blockade “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” warning that the longer flows stay frozen, the more damage spreads through growth and inflation. He also warned of knock-on pressure across fuels and power, from gasoline and natural gas to electricity.
Europe’s Jet Fuel Crisis: A Looming Disaster
Birol’s timeline lands as European carriers enter the summer rush, making the jet fuel pinch more than an airline problem. Air travel contributes 851 billion euros in annual GDP to Europe and supports 14 million jobs, according to ACI Europe.
Analysts told CNBC the severity for airlines hinges on how long barrels stop moving through Hormuz, a corridor central to seaborne energy. The IEA has also flagged supply constraints were set to worsen in April, with Birol previously saying the loss of oil would jump versus March.
Outside Europe, the disruption is reshaping shipping behavior as traders look for routes that don’t require transiting the Gulf chokepoint. Trump has framed the influx of empty vessels as proof U.S. crude can step in when traditional lanes are blocked.
What Happens If Hormuz Remains Blocked?
The Strait of Hormuz typically carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply, so a prolonged stoppage forces refiners and airlines to compete for replacement cargoes. Trump said the U.S. has begun efforts to clear the strait and told reporters, “It won’t be easy … we will have that open fairly soon.”
Trump added, “Other countries use the strait … and they’ll help out.” Even with a ceasefire Trump announced earlier this week, commercial traffic has not restarted.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad aimed at ending a six-week conflict, though Tehran has suggested the meeting could be uncertain without concessions tied to Lebanon and sanctions relief. The U.S. delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance and includes Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Rising Fuel Costs: Impact On Air Travel Demand
Higher fuel can hit airline costs and cool demand as ticket prices rise. EasyJet said Thursday conflict-driven fuel increases are weighing on bookings, with sales for later in the year down 2% versus 2025.
EasyJet said it absorbed roughly £25 million in extra fuel expense in March and hedged at least 70% of its summer fuel. ACI Europe warned peak summer travel could be disrupted, with harsh economic impacts for member states that depend on seasonal travel inflows.
Oil markets remained volatile as traders weighed the supply disruption against diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait.
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