Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could form a market bottom as early as May, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, though such a scenario would likely require a sharp capitulation event.
Early Bottom Possible, But Unlikely
In his Apr. 15 podcast, Cowen said the base-case outlook still points to a later bottom, likely around October 2026, in line with historical market cycles.
While a May bottom is possible, it remains a lower-probability scenario unless price action deviates significantly from past patterns.
He noted that the current cycle closely resembles previous midterm-year behavior, where markets tend to move sideways before a more decisive phase later in the year.
Cowen compared the current environment to 2019, when Bitcoin topped under low enthusiasm (“apathy”) rather than hype.
In such conditions, capital does not rotate into altcoins, and Bitcoin dominance tends to rise while smaller tokens underperform.
This dynamic suggests a more subdued cycle, where altcoins weaken steadily instead of benefiting from a broad speculative surge.
Macro Conditions Still A Key Driver
A central theme in Cowen’s analysis is the interaction between Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and the broader business cycle. While macro factors may not determine exact tops, they significantly influence how high Bitcoin can go and how it behaves afterward.
He emphasized that the current environment reflects a late-stage business cycle, which historically pressures risk assets and alters typical crypto market dynamics.
Cowen maintains that Bitcoin may still need to fall below key valuation levels, such as realized and balance price, before forming a true bottom.
While short-term opportunities may exist across the market, he reiterated that Bitcoin remains the most reliable long-term asset in crypto, with altcoins and related assets often underperforming over extended periods.
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