Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called for an investigation into alleged insider trading on prediction markets on Tuesday, citing “well-timed bets” ahead of U.S. strikes on Iran.
That’s Not Luck, Says Warren
Warren wrote in an X post that some traders correctly anticipated U.S. strikes on Iran in February, prompting her to call for an investigation into the matter.
“That’s not luck. That looks like insider trading,” Warren said. “A handful of insiders should not be allowed to turn global crises into personal paydays.”
Federal Employees Involved?
Note that Warren and 37 other lawmakers sent a letter last month to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of Government Ethics, calling for action against illegal insider trading in prediction markets by federal employees.
Lawmakers referenced multiple cases, including one where a Polymarket user made $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolas Maduro.
Polymarket and the CFTC didn’t immediately return Benzinga’s request for comment.
Iran Bets Under Scanner
Iran war-related bets have attracted the most scrutiny. Blockchain analysis revealed that six suspected insider accounts made $1.2 million at the exact time of the U.S. strikes on Iran, prompting Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) to introduce legislation banning war betting.
Later, newly created anonymous accounts booked over $480,000 in profits by betting on a ceasefire before April 7.
Notably, Manhattan’s top fraud prosecutors met with Polymarket last month to discuss whether lucrative bets on the platform violated insider trading and other federal laws.
Polymarket’s founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan, previously emphasized the accuracy of his platform, stating it to be “the most accurate thing” in mankind. Addressing the possibility of insider trading, he acknowledged the “inevitability” of people seeking an edge in the market.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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