Billionaire investor Robert Friedland has warned that a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could hurt global mining supply chains. During Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.’s (OTC:IVPAF) first-quarter production results on Monday, Friedland, the company’s founder, noted a risk of a second-order supply crunch across metals markets.
“If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues, we are especially concerned about the availability of precursor materials necessary for the mining industry to continue operating,” Friedland said.
“A second-derivative effect will be on global copper production due to the shortage of the world’s most important industrial chemical, sulphuric acid,” he added.
Ripple Effect Shortage
Sulphuric acid is a critical input in mining and agriculture. Besides its role in leaching copper from oxide ores, it is a vital part of phosphate fertilizer production, which accounts for over half of global demand.
Furthermore, it plays a large role in smelting and metal processing. Copper smelting alone consumes tens of millions of tons annually. Therefore, any disruption in the supply cascades across the food and metals supply chain simultaneously amplifies inflationary pressure and supply risk.
China’s decision to ban sulphuric acid exports starting May 1 doesn’t help the cause. The country, which ships about 2.7 million tons annually, is a major supplier to markets such as Chile.
The export ban—covering acid produced as a byproduct of copper and zinc smelting—tightens availability just as Middle East-linked shipping disruptions cut off roughly half of the seaborne sulfur supply. SunSirs data shows a nearly 130% year-to-date price rise.
Shielded From Trouble
Ivanhoe’s flagship Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is insulated from the risk. First-quarter production reached 71,417 tons of copper anode and blister, along with 117,871 tons of high-strength sulphuric acid.
Since the smelter generates acid as a byproduct, Kamoa-Kakula has the strategic advantage of a net seller, rather than a consumer. Still, the company has implemented contingency measures, including advanced diesel procurement, to safeguard operations.
However, elsewhere in the DRC, disruptions are already taking place. Reuters reported that leading copper and cobalt producers have seen shipments of key chemicals canceled or delayed, forcing them to cut usage and consider output reductions.
While sources did not name specific companies, one referenced the country’s three largest operators—China’s CMOC (OTC:CMCLY), Glencore Plc (OTC:GLCNF), and Eurasian Resources Group.
Uneven Supply Chain Shocks
The broader copper market presents a mixed picture in 2026. According to Mining.com, Macquarie argues that copper is currently oversupplied and overpriced, with global inventories rising by more than 1 million tons since early 2025 and visible stockpiles at multi-year highs.
Yet, the short-term surplus contrasts sharply with long-term projections, which point to structural shortages in the 2030s. The forward-looking market seems to agree with these projections, since the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:COPX) is up 16.16% year-to-date.
Meanwhile, cobalt is already in deficit. DRC’s export curbs have caused a shortage of 82,000 tons last year, pushing prices higher. Unless the policy changes, shortages will persist through the decade.
Photo by Ziadi Lotfi via Shutterstock
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