Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could redefine North America’s foldable smartphone market, with analysts pointing to its anticipated entry as a catalyst for a broad competitive reset.
Apple Entry to Drive Market Shift
Apple is poised to capture an estimated 46% share of the North American foldable smartphone segment, which is projected to grow 48% year over year in 2026, according to Counterpoint. The forecast suggests Apple’s arrival could quickly reshape market dynamics and intensify competition across the category.
Rivals Face Market Share Pressure
Counterpoint expects Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google’s to see its share decline from 5% to 3%, as its single-foldable lineup overlaps with Apple’s positioning. Motorola’s share could drop from 44% to 23%, despite efforts to expand its portfolio.
Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF) is also projected to lose ground in North America, with its share falling from 51% to 29% as Apple intensifies competition. Samsung is expected to broaden its foldable lineup in response.
Analyst Sees Strong Early Demand
Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan recently maintained a Buy rating on Apple, saying its planned 2026 foldable iPhone launch could drive strong early demand of 10 million to 20 million units. He cited support from premium users and demand in China.
Mohan added that a staggered release strategy should help smooth the supply chain and production cycles, despite a slight cut to his price target.
Apple Technical Analysis
Apple is sitting in the middle of its 52-week range ($189.81 to $288.62), which fits a market that’s digesting gains rather than trending cleanly. The stock is trading 2.1% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) but 2.1% below its 100-day SMA, a split that leans constructive short-term while the intermediate trend still needs repair.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, has the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram is positive, which leans toward improving upside momentum pressure. That “turn” matters because Apple saw a bullish MACD cross in April 2025, and traders often look for follow-through when MACD stays on the right side of its signal.
On a longer lens, Apple is up 27.99% over the past 12 months, which is consistent with a still-positive big-picture tape despite the recent consolidation. The golden cross back in September 2025 (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) also supports the idea that the longer-term trend hasn’t fully broken, even if the stock is currently stuck below its 50-day and 100-day SMAs.
- Key Resistance: $276.00 — an area where rallies have recently stalled
- Key Support: $246.00 — a level where buyers have tended to show up
Price Action
AAPL Stock Price Activity: Apple shares were down 0.02% at $259.14 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo via Shutterstock
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