TD Cowen slashed its Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) price target 20.5% to $350 from $440 while launching buy ratings on four crypto treasury firms as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) tapped $73,000 on Friday.
The Strategy Cut
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete attributed the revised target to a “lower bitcoin price deck” and a reduction in the valuation multiple applied to the company’s projected bitcoin gains, The Block reported on Friday.
The analysts project Strategy’s “BTC gain” at $7.87 billion for fiscal year 2026, down from $10.17 billion in 2025. Strategy holds 766,970 BTC acquired at an average price of $75,700 per BTC.
TD Cowen’s base case assumes Bitcoin reaches $140,000 by December 2026, with the company acquiring about $5 billion in Bitcoin per quarter.
The Four Buy Initiations
TD Cowen initiated coverage of what it called a nascent industry sector, arguing that public Bitcoin and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) treasury companies represent operating activities that add value to investors and their underlying digital asset ecosystems.
Strive (NASDAQ:ASST) surged 8% to $10 after receiving a $26 price target, implying 165% upside.
The firm has accumulated 13,628 BTC as of March 17 and posted a Bitcoin Yield of 22% in Q4 2025 alongside a Bitcoin Dollar Gain of $114.3 million.
SharpLink (NASDAQ:SBET) rose 2% to $6.55 on a $16 target. TD Cowen projects $93 million in Ethereum dollar gains for the company in fiscal 2026.
SharpLink held 864,597 ETH as of December 31, making it the world’s second-largest publicly traded Ethereum holder, while staking revenue hit $15.3 million in Q4 2025—up 49% from Q3.
Nakamoto (NASDAQ:NAKA) climbed 3% to $0.22 with a $1 target, representing 376% upside. The company holds 5,342 Bitcoin as of December 31 and owns Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference through its BTC Inc acquisition.
Still, Nakamoto has traded below Nasdaq’s minimum threshold since late October and announced a reverse stock split of 1-for-20 to 1-for-50 to regain compliance.
Smarter Web (LSE: SWC.LN), a UK-based firm that uplisted to the London Stock Exchange in February after raising £225 million ($302 million), received a £1 ($1.34) target based on an estimated BTC gain of £52 million ($70 million) for fiscal 2027.
The Underlying Thesis
TD Cowen’s broader thesis hinges on a year-end Bitcoin target of $140,000 and a year-end Ethereum target of $3,650.
Bitcoin traded at $73,000 Friday morning, up 3% over 24 hours, while Ethereum hovered near $2,250, up 3.5%.
That said, the prediction market tells a different story—Polymarket puts the implied probability of Bitcoin hitting $140,000 by year-end at just 11%, placing TD Cowen firmly in the optimist camp.
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