U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on Tuesday, but the agreement has been on shaky grounds as Israel continued to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran Accuses US
Iran on Thursday accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire, with Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accusing the country of violating three clauses of the ceasefire. He added that “a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.”
Israel, US Say Lebanon Excluded
Israel and the U.S. both said that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire, according to a Reuters report, contradicting Iran.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract “Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by…?”
Over $1 million has been bet on the contract so far.
Amid the strikes and Israel saying Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire, the prediction market is not very confident about a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
Bettors have placed a 30% probability on a ceasefire between the two countries happening by April 30, down by 13%.
However, bettors are more confident about a ceasefire happening by June 30, with the probability rising to 58%.
The Fall And Rise Of Oil
As Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, WTI crude fell 15.11% to $95.88 per barrel. However, with the ceasefire being on shaky grounds, oil has risen by 3.5% to $97.71.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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