Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY) shares were initially trading higher Thursday morning as oil prices jumped on renewed Middle East tension, but the stock reversed and moved lower by the afternoon as crude gave back part of its surge and traders started pricing in a less immediate supply-shock scenario. Here’s what investors need to know.
- Occidental Petroleum stock is showing weakness. Why is OXY stock retreating?
Early Oil Spike Supported OXY’s Bull Case
The morning move made sense because OXY is highly leveraged to crude prices. As a major U.S. oil and gas producer, Occidental’s upstream earnings and cash flow are closely tied to realized oil prices, so any geopolitical development that threatens global supply can quickly lift the stock.
That setup was in place early Thursday after President Donald Trump said U.S. military assets would remain positioned near Iran until any agreement was fully complied with, while Tehran accused Washington of violating ceasefire terms and reiterated threats toward vessels waiting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remained shut.
WTI crude briefly moved back above $100 a barrel before later trimming gains.
Lebanon-Israel Talks Helped Cool The Energy Trade
The reversal in Occidental Petroleum shares later in the day also makes sense because the market got a partial de-escalation signal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Lebanon had requested direct talks and that Israel agreed to engage, introducing a fragile diplomatic angle that helped crude pull back to about $98 by midday.
For Occidental Petroleum, that matters because once oil stops accelerating higher, the urgency behind buying oil-sensitive producers can fade fast.
Analysts See Lower EPS And Revenue Ahead Of May 5 Report
Following last quarter’s results, investors are now tracking the path toward the next reporting date on May 5.
- EPS Estimate: 68 cents (Down from 87 cents year-over-year)
- Revenue Estimate: $5.55 billion (Down from $6.84 billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 44.3x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)
Analyst Targets Trend Higher Even As Wall Street Stays Cautious
The stock carries a Hold rating with a consensus price target of $57.08. Recent analyst moves include:
- Wells Fargo: Overweight (Raises target to $72 on April 9)
- Citigroup: Neutral (Raises target to $67 on March 30)
- Truist Securities: Initiated with Hold (Target $65 on March 24)
OXY Shares Edge Lower Tuesday Afternoon
OXY Price Action: Occidental Petroleum shares were down 2.07% at $58.83 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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