President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran in exchange for restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also claimed “total and complete victory,” hinting at possibility of a broader agreement during the two weeks.
Prediction Market Bets On Hormuz
As the two sides have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the prediction market is betting on whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal.
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?”
Over $4.4 million has been bet on the contract so far.
Bettors have placed a 54% probability of traffic returning to normal at the Strait of Hormuz by the end of April. Bettors are more confident about it returning to normal by the end of May, placing a 65% probability.
For context, data from the UN Trade and Development shows that the average number of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in February, before the Iran war began, was 129 per day. As per a tracker, currently 15 ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil Prices Plunge
As Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, WTI crude fell 15.11% to $95.88 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 14.03% to $93.94 per barrel.
The ceasefire announcement came shortly before a U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the passage, which Trump had earlier tied to the threat of large-scale military action.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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