Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading below a key resistance zone, raising concerns that recent price stability may be masking deeper risks tied to late-stage economic conditions.
Late-Cycle Warning Signs
Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Monday that retail investors may be growing overly confident — overlooking macro pressures, such as persistent inflation, a weakening labor market and rising geopolitical tensions.
He noted that late-cycle bear markets often feature deceptive price action, sideways or mildly bullish moves on low volume, that can mislead traders into believing the downturn has ended before another sharp decline begins.
A key concern is rising oil prices, which historically act as a drag on consumers and have often preceded recessions. Combined with tight liquidity and policy uncertainty, these factors suggest the economy may be entering a fragile phase.
“Rolling Down The Risk Curve”
Cowen also described a pattern known as “rolling down the risk curve,” where capital gradually exits riskier assets.
Typically, this begins with altcoins, followed by Bitcoin, then equities such as the S&P 500, and eventually even traditional safe-haven assets like gold if conditions deteriorate further.
He added that Bitcoin may already be showing early signs of structural weakness, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows forming since late 2025.
The broader view suggests Bitcoin could still be in a distribution phase, where rallies are sold into rather than sustained.
Unless Bitcoin breaks decisively above resistance, buying dips may run counter to the prevailing trend.
Additional macro shocks, such as further increases in oil prices or geopolitical escalation, could accelerate downside risks.
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