The Iran war has pushed crude oil prices over 45% in March, with WTI crude futures settling above $100 for the first time since July 2022. With both Iran and the U.S.-Israel continuing to attack each other, an end to hostilities seems distant.
Iran Invasion Odds Surge
The odds of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran by the end of April surged to 70% as per the prediction market, up from 57% just a week ago.
Meanwhile, expectations for peace have declined. Bettors priced in a 32% odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of April, down from 40% last week.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract “US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?”
Over $62,000 has been bet on the contract so far.
Bettors are not confident that Iran and the U.S. will agree to a ceasefire before oil hits $120.
As per prediction markets, bettors have placed a 30% probability on a ceasefire happening before oil hits $120, down by 18%.
Trump Threatens Strikes On Iran
Hopes of a ceasefire diminished on Monday after President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post, warned he would obliterate Iran’s oil infrastructure, including wells, power plants and Kharg Island, if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened.
Oil is currently trading at $102.66, down by 0.21%.
Iran Asks Saudi Arabia To ‘Eject’ US Forces
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Monday urged Saudi Arabia to expel U.S. forces from the kingdom
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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