In a surreal twist to escalating global conflicts, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has taken to X to mock Donald Trump‘s pre-market announcements, advising Wall Street investors to “do the opposite” as popular trading strategies collapse under the weight of an expanding war.
The ‘Reverse Indicator’
As markets grapple with the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and looming tariff battles, Ghalibaf—a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander—offered literal day-trading advice to counter Trump’s social media posts.
“Pre-market so-called ‘news’ or ‘Truth’ is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator,” Ghalibaf stated to his followers. “Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”
The taunt adds a layer of psychological warfare to a conflict that has already seen Iran’s supreme leader killed and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.
The Fall Of The TACO Trade
Ghalibaf’s comments arrive just as Wall Street’s favorite dip-buying strategy—the “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) trade—hits a wall. For much of the previous year, traders reliably bought market dips caused by Trump’s rhetoric, expecting quick, face-saving reversals.
That playbook failed last week. When Trump extended his deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6, the anticipated relief rally vanished.
Investors are no longer treating these delays as a path to peace, but rather as tactical pauses before further military escalation. With Brent crude soaring above $107 per barrel, the geopolitical premium is no longer a temporary spike but a structural market feature.
Bond Vigilantes Strike
The geopolitical strain is also fracturing the U.S. bond market. Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke recently noted that the combined pressures of the trade and military conflicts mean “the bond vigilantes have turned on Trump.”
The 30-Year Treasury yield recently brushed 4.98%, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.46%. Ghalibaf further stoked fiscal fears by warning that financial institutions purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds are legitimate military targets, cementing the reality that this conflict will not be easily walked back.
Markets Fall In 2026
At the last check after Friday’s market close, the S&P 500 index tumbled 7.14%, whereas the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones declined 9.84% and 6.65%, respectively, year-to-date.
On the other hand, the ETF tracking WTI Crude futures, United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO), has risen 78.09% in the same period.
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, closed lower on Friday. The SPY was down 1.71% at $634.09, while the QQQ declined 1.95% to $562.58.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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