Vice President JD Vance topped the Conservative Political Action Conference’s 2028 presidential straw poll, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio surged to second place.
CPAC 2028 Straw Poll Results
On Saturday, at CPAC in Grapevine, Texas, more than 1,600 attendees voted in the informal straw poll, reported The Hill.
Vance received 53% of the vote, followed by Rubio with 35%. No other contender surpassed 2%.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) and Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, were tied for a distant third with 2% each.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-KY.), Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) each received 1% of the vote.
Paul Empson, a 58-year-old accountant from Fort Worth, said he supported Vance because of his alignment with the MAGA movement and public faith in Christianity, reported Reuters.
“I wasn’t real sure about him at first, you know, like he’s inexperienced, but I’ve seen everything he’s done,” Empson said.
He added, “He’s a real, genuine person, and he’s also willing to proclaim his faith in Jesus Christ in public.”
Several attendees suggested a Vance-Rubio ticket would appeal to the conservative base.
James Schaare, 61, a political activist from Euless, Texas, said Rubio impressed him through his speeches and consistent conservatism.
“Over the last couple of years, everything he says and does is 100% conservative,” said Schaare.
Carol Kurpiel, 79, praised Rubio’s energy and direct style, adding, “He’s strong. He’s to the point. He works like Trump: go, go, go, go.”
Prediction Markets Track 2028 Presidential Race
Donald Trump praised prediction markets, saying they “predicted me pretty right… by a landslide” and outperformed polls, as the industry passed $17 billion in monthly volume despite legal scrutiny.
A 2025 Vanderbilt study confirmed that Polymarket outperformed polls in swing states during the 2024 election.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, supported the industry, filing a brief asserting federal jurisdiction and criticizing state enforcement as a “power grab.”
Earlier this year, Prediction markets also offered an early look at the 2028 presidential race.
Vance led with a 28% probability, followed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) at 20% and Rubio at 10%, with over $8.5 million wagered on Kalshi’s “Next U.S. Presidential Election Winner?” contract.
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