It was a week that promised relief and delivered even more uncertainty on Wall Street.
On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. and Iran had shared “good and productive conversations,” hinting at a genuine path toward a ceasefire.
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 stock is trending lower. Why is QQQ stock trading lower?
Oil fell to $85 a barrel. Wall Street cheered.
Washington sent a 15-point plan to end the war. Then Tehran’s response arrived: no deal, no direct talks and a five-point counterproposal demanding war reparations and Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — a condition Washington immediately called a non-starter.
The exhale turned back into a held breath. On Thursday, Trump tried again, announcing a 10-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, granting Tehran until April 6 to come to the table.
Iran’s answer was the same: the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and any vessel transiting the waterway without authorization will face consequences. The Pentagon, meanwhile, is now reportedly weighing the deployment of up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region.
For markets, it was another cold shower.
WTI crude climbed back to $99 per barrel by the close on Friday — 40% above pre-war levels. Treasury yields marched higher, with the 10-year note reaching 4.47%, near its highest level in eight months.
The Week Of Crude Oil Price In One Chart
Markets are now pricing roughly a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates by December, a stunning reversal from expectations of two cuts at the start of the year.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index — as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) — is now down more than 6% on the month and has crossed into correction territory from its January peak.
The Dow and S&P 500 aren’t far behind.
Chart: Tech Stocks Entered Correction Territory This Week
Energy remains the only sector posting gains on the month, achieving a staggering 14-straight week positive streak.
American consumers are now feeling the pain directly. According to AAA, the national average for regular unleaded reached $3.978 on Friday — up 33.4% in a single month — while diesel crossed $5.38 nationally and topped $7 per gallon in California.
The University of Michigan’s final March Consumer Sentiment report, released Friday, put numbers to the damage. The headline index fell to 53.3, down 5.8% from February and 6.5% below a year ago. Consumer expectations dropped even harder, down 8.7% month-over-month to 51.7.
Even more worrisome is the impact on inflation concerns. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 3.4% to 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since April 2025.
The gap between Washington’s optimism and what Americans are paying has rarely been wider — and for now, nothing on the horizon suggests either is about to narrow.
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