President Donald Trump has reportedly sent Iran a 15-point peace plan — addressing ballistic missiles, nuclear programs, and maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite a CNBC report on Wednesday that Tehran “does not accept a ceasefire,” markets remain focused on the potential for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy, with war-battered names staging a sharp premarket rebound on Wednesday
Prediction markets are also moving.
The probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 now sits at 48% on Polymarket — a coin flip that, just a week ago, would have seemed optimistic.
For 10 Russell 1000 names down between 17% and 33% since the war began, that coin flip is everything.
What The 15-Point Plan Signals
Several diplomatic developments converged on Tuesday to shift the market’s calculus toward a negotiated resolution. Beyond the 15-point framework, U.S. and regional mediators have reportedly discussed holding high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday, though Iran has yet to confirm.
President Trump said at a White House ceremony that “this war has been won” and “I think we’re going to end it.”
The counterweights remain real. Iran and Israel reportedly continued strikes through Tuesday.
The U.S. is planning to deploy approximately 3,000 additional airborne troops. Several Gulf states are reportedly edging toward joining operations against Iran.
Hormuz oil flows remain near a standstill — down 95% versus normal on a four-day moving average, with the hit to Persian Gulf oil exports at 15.5 million barrels per day, partially offset by a pickup in pipeline and port redirection of 3.8 million barrels per day.
Brent and WTI held below $100 and $90, respectively, following Monday’s crude selloff — a market beginning, cautiously, to price in a resolution.
The 10 Most War-Battered Russell 1000 Stocks
These are the names with the most to recover. Each has been caught in one of three war-driven compression mechanisms: collapsing gold and metals prices as energy costs spiked, aviation margin destruction from fuel costs and Gulf airspace rerouting, or cruise and leisure demand shock from consumer uncertainty.
AngloGold Ashanti plc (NYSE:AU) leads the losers with a -32.84% month-to-date decline. Gold prices tumbled roughly 17% as energy spiked, creating a double squeeze for miners: input costs surged while the output price collapsed. Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) and Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) have followed the same script, down 24.15% and 23.83% respectively.
Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) is down 26.76%, caught in the broader metals sell-off as industrial demand forecasts have deteriorated amid the geopolitical shock. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) has shed 17.04% for the same reason.
Airlines have been hit on two fronts — jet fuel costs and rerouting. Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) is down 25.43%, Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) down 19.14%, and American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) down 18.06%.
The leisure and cruise complex rounds out the list. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) has fallen 20.69% and Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) is down 19.27% — both pricing in a sustained chilling effect on discretionary travel spending.
The Market Read
A ceasefire would not immediately reverse all of these moves — gold’s relationship with energy costs would normalize gradually, and airline fuel hedges take time to roll off.
But the directional trade is clear: any credible peace signal could trigger violent short-covering across this basket.
Trump’s 15-point plan may or may not end the war. What it has already done is put a floor under the stocks most desperate for peace.
Image via NINA IMAGES/Shutterstock
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