Odds of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran have surged on the cryptocurrency prediction market, despite President Donald Trump’s assertion that military objectives are nearly complete.
Will US Troops Enter Iran?
The probability that U.S. troops physically enter Iran by the end of April surged from 42% to 57% in a week on Polymarket. The odds of U.S. boots on the ground before year-end rose to 72%, up from 63% the week before.
Nearly $23 million has been wagered on the outcome. U.S. military personnel must physically enter Iran’s land territory to qualify. Operations limited to air or sea will not qualify.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), has faced criticism in the past for launching betting events that aim to profit from conflicts and wars.
Which Way Is The Conflict Headed?
The odds come in the wake of Trump’s claims that the U.S. is nearing its military goals in the conflict and that he won’t deploy ground troops. Meanwhile, reports indicate the Pentagon is deploying up to 2,500 additional Marines to the region.
Iran’s foreign minister said earlier this month that Tehran is prepared for a possible U.S. ground invasion, adding, “We are waiting for them.”
The conflict has disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments, pushing crude prices higher and rattling markets.
Over the weekend, Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened immediately and warned of strikes on Iranian power plants if the waterway remained closed. Iran warned of severe consequences if their energy infrastructure is targeted
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