The S&P 500 fell 1.36% on Wednesday to close at 6,624.70 after a hotter-than-expected PPI report, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell‘s cautious inflation comments stoked fears that the U.S. economy is heading toward stagflation — lower growth and higher prices simultaneously.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bearish heading into Thursday. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 19?” market sits at 55% “Down,” 45% “Up,” with over $54,000 in early traded volume.
Why That Number Matters
The inflation picture deteriorated sharply on Wednesday. February PPI came in at 0.7% — more than double the 0.3% consensus — before energy prices from the Iran war have even fully filtered into the data. The Fed held rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75% as expected, but markets are now pricing a 56.4% probability the central bank stays on hold for all of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In a post-meeting statement, the Fed also said that the “implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.”
Overnight, the situation in the Middle East worsened. Israel struck Iran’s largest gas processing facility in Bushehr Province. Iran has since threatened attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar — and already launched a new wave of strikes on UAE energy infrastructure this week. Brent crude topped $111 a barrel overnight, and futures were at $113.45 when checked at 2.53 AM ET.
The Bull Countercase
Weekly jobless claims are due Thursday morning alongside the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — a softer-than-expected reading on either could give bulls a foothold. Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) also reports before the open, offering a read on consumer spending health.
At 2.53 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were down 0.08% at 6,671.75 points.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,697.16 — below Tuesday’s close of 6,716.09 — as the hot PPI print hit before the bell and set the tone for the session. “Down” resolved correctly on $177,031 in traded volume.
Image via Shutterstock
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