Oil prices remained elevated on Monday as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran’s crude export facilities on Kharg Island and the war heads toward its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.
The Kalshi prediction market crowd has one blunt question on the table: Does WTI close above $100?
The bet resolves against the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) front-month WTI settlement price — the official end-of-day price published each afternoon by the Intercontinental Exchange, the benchmark the entire oil market uses. Above $99.99 at settlement, YES wins. Below it, NO wins.
At 3.40 AM ET, WTI futures were trading at $100.37 a barrel, up 1.68%, after earlier climbing as high as $102.40 a barrel to their highest level since July 2022.
The Kalshi crowd is leaning YES — but not convincingly. The YES contract on a close above $99.99 is trading at ¢66, implying a 59% probability that WTI settles above $100. The crowd is also pricing a 56% chance of closing above $101 and a 42% chance of pushing past $102 — suggesting traders believe $100 holds, but a sustained breakout higher remains far from certain. Kalshi stops taking new bets at 2:30 PM ET.
Pressure Reading
Trump demanded on Sunday that seven countries join an international coalition aimed at policing the chokepoint Strait of Hormuz, and is also reportedly weighing a seizure of Kharg Island — Iran’s critical oil depot — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf. About 90% of Iran’s oil exports ship from Kharg.
The Strait of Hormuz linking the Persian Gulf with global markets has remained effectively shut since the conflict began, with Iran’s new supreme leader vowing to keep the waterway closed if hostilities continue.
The Gusher Case
Iran is blocking Gulf countries from exporting their oil while allowing tankers carrying Iranian crude to pass freely, keeping the supply shock alive as long as the war does. WTI crude has surged nearly 50% since the war began, from around $67 a barrel on February 28 to above $100 by mid-March.
The Dry Well
Late Friday, Trump said he held off on striking Kharg’s oil facilities and called for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and any hint of diplomatic progress could collapse prices fast.
Prices are currently holding firm despite a coordinated emergency release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves across more than 30 countries — the largest such intervention in history.
The U.S. alone is contributing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), which is overseeing the effort, said on Sunday Asian nations began releasing supplies immediately, with Americas and European stockpiles flowing by the end of March.
Image via Shutterstock
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