On Friday, TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) said escalating Middle East tensions have forced the shutdown or pending shutdown of operations in Qatar, Iraq, and UAE offshore fields, affecting about 15% of its global production.
Production Disruptions
The company said production has already halted or is in the process of shutting down in the affected areas.
Despite the sizable share of output, the company noted the volumes represent about 10% of upstream cash flow because these assets generate lower cash flow from operations (CFFO) due to higher taxation.
TotalEnergies said onshore UAE production of about 210,000 barrels per day remains unaffected. It added that stronger oil prices could offset the lost output, noting that an $8-per-barrel rise in Brent would cover the expected 2026 cash flow from the affected assets.
The company said operations at the Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia continue normally, while the impact on LNG trading from Qatar disruptions is expected to be limited.
Growth Outlook
Looking ahead, TotalEnergies said most of its 2026 growth in “accretive barrels” will come from projects outside the Middle East, reducing exposure to regional disruptions.
Temporary Fuel Price Caps In France
Separately, the company last week introduced temporary pump-price caps across France to shield consumers from volatility in diesel and gasoline markets.
Under the measure, petrol prices will be capped at 1.99 euros per liter, while diesel will be capped at 2.09 euros per liter. The diesel cap will immediately apply to customers at 1,830 stations within TotalEnergies’ 3,300-station network in France.
Technical Analysis
TotalEnergies is trading 4.7% above its 20-day SMA and 20.4% above its 100-day SMA, keeping the intermediate trend pointed higher, and shares are up 32.13% over the past 12 months.
The stock is also sitting near the top of its $52.78 to $83.14 52-week range, which tells you buyers have stayed in control into recent highs.
Earnings Projections
Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the April 29, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.
- EPS Estimate: $1.78 (Down from $1.83 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $43.83 Billion (Down from $52.25 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 14.3x (Indicates value opportunity relative to peers)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $70.40. Recent analyst moves include:
- Piper Sandler: Neutral (Raises Target to $92.00) (Mar. 12)
- JP Morgan: Upgraded to Overweight (Mar. 2)
- TD Cowen: Hold (Raises Target to $70.00) (Jan. 22)
Top ETF Exposure
- State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:FEZ): 2.86% Weight
- State Street SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (NYSE:GNR): 2.77% Weight
Significance: Because TTE carries significant weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.
TTE Price Action: TotalEnergies shares were up 0.37% at $83.06 during premarket trading on Monday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $83.14, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo by Vytautas Kielaitis via Shutterstock
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